Markets Weekly For 13/07 To 18/07/2009

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

SECTOR WATCH

SECTOR : CAPITAL GOODS ( Bearish )

Total OI of ABB FUT up 9.47% prices down 11.63%, BHEL FUT up 4.11% prices down 9.59%, LT FUT up 3.41% prices down 16% and SIEMENS FUT up 3.65%prices down 15.80% last week. CAPITAL GOODS counters showing short positions build up in last week.

We expect more down side in coming week.

STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK

SBIN FUT : Bearish

Total OI of SBIN FUT up 35.52% prices down 15.16% last week. SBIN JULY FUT Intraday high 1835.70, Intraday low 1534.70 last week.

We expect negative move to continue with possibility of TECHNICAL BOUNCE.

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-

1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 4.48%, NIFTY FUT closed down 9.74% last week. Biggest negative weekly close in current year.

2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 04 Stock FUTS closed positive, 43 Stock FUTS closed negative and 03 Stock FUTs close flat last week.

3) OI of current series NIFTY 4000 CE is up 297.85% prices down 75.89%, NIFTY 4100 CE is up by 1688.81% prices down 81.12% last week showing aggressive call writing. OI of NIFTY 4200 CE is up 51.22% prices down 86.22% showing unwinding plus call writing. OI of NIFTY 4300 CE is 36.63 LK, highest OI in CALLs.

4) OI of current series NIFTY 3800 PE is up by 21.96% prices up 57.01% showing put buying. NIFTY 3900 PE is down 12.55% prices up 72.35% showing short covering. NIFTY 4000 PE is up 20.20% prices up 86.45%, NIFTY 4100 PE is down 3.14% prices up 95.52% showing not only short covering plus buying. NIFTY 4200 PE is down 27.78% prices up 104.22% showing profit booking. OI of NIFTY 3800 PE is 45.54 LK, highest OI in PUTs.

5) Total OI of JULY series CALLs is up by 81.08 LK to 3.27 CR, JULY series PUTs is up by 5.72 LK to 2.74 CR. OI of JULY series (single series) CALLs at 3.27 CR is higher than total OI of NIFTY FUT (all series) at 2.37 CR. NIFTY JULY series PCR (OI) at 0.84.

Conclusion :-

I expect down move to continue for 1-2 sessions. NIFTY SPOT Support 3900-3910, 3860-70, Below 3850,Strong Supports At 3800-3810.

I expect TECHNICAL BOUNCE near 3800 levels for TGT 4030-40, 4070-80. Above 4090 levels, strong Resistance At 4120-30 levels.

But trend is clearly down. No sign of TREND REVERSAL.

NIFTY (4003.9) : Range Of 3730-4150,Wherein Is 4150 Is A Big Resistance & 3730-3750 Gap Should Be Filled.

Resistance : 4155 / 4330 / 4660

Support : 3900 / 3850 / 3730 / 3650

SENSEX (13504.22)

Resistance : 14010 / 14600 / 16700

Support : 12900 / 12325

NIFTY FUT (3993.7)

Resistance : 4040 / 4090 / 4130 / 4315 / 4670

Support : 3915 / 3865 / 3800 / 3750 / 3625

BANK NIFTY (6486.85)

Resistance : 6865 / 7115 / 7320

Support : 6025 / 5465 / 5315 / 5025

--> NIFTY Has Formed A Bearish Reversal Pattern Called HEAD & SHOULDER, Wherein The Gaps Like 3870 & 3730,Can Be Filled. NIFTY Has Resistances Around 4040 , 4155 & 4220.

--> There Is Maximum Possibility Of NIFTY Retesting 3750-3720 Levels In Current Few Days. If There Are Weak Global Cues This Week,There Is Full Possibility Of NIFTY Heading Towards 3500/3400 In This Month, Where In Also A Gap Was Left.

--> PHARMA’S & FMCG’S Would Be The Least Hit In This Global Meltdown, Wherein RIL, LNT, RELINFRA, ONGC & Many Other High Beta Stocks Wold Be The Biggest Loser.

POSITIONAL Sell (Deliveries / Futures)

IFCI@ 45,Sl 50,Tgt 35/30/25

JPHYDRO@ 75/80,Sl 90,Tgt 65/60/50+

JPASS@ 185/95,Sl 205,Tgt 175/65/50+

RIL@ 1800,Sl 1850,Tgt 1725/1640+

BHARTI@ CMP,Tgt 680/50+

CRUDE (Bearish) : If Stays Above 60$,Only Then Can There Be A Bounce Till 65/67/72$

Resistance : 3035 / 3070

Support : 2980 / 2860

GOLD (915$) : Range 14405-14580-14625 , Weak Below 14405

Sell@ 915$,Tgt 905/895$,Sl 921$

SILVER : Resistance@ 12.85 (Bearish)

Sell Below 12.85,Tgt 12.5/12.35

Buy Above 12.85,Tgt 13/13.2

NATURAL GAS (Oversold Zone) : Pivot@ 180.4

Buy Only Above 183,Tgt 195/200/205

Sell Below 177,Tgt 165/60/55