Markets For 29/07/2009

It was another volatile day for the Indian markets as the Sensex made swings through negative and positive zones. After opening in a positive zone, it immediately entered the negative zone. Sensex managed to recover in the afternoon session but only to decline in the fag end of closing. While Sensex closed at 15331 .94 down 43.10 points Nifty closed at 4564.10 down 8.20 points. Real Estate and Automobile Index were up with RBI maintaining status quo But Banking index witnessed a decline of 1.22 per cent. Other sectoral indices remained out of the limelight and ended on a flat note. But the mid-cap and small Cap indices managed to outperform the Sensex with significant gains. Market breadth was positive with 1709 advances and 945 declines.

NIFTY (4564.1)

Resistance : 4600 / 4635 / 4655 / 4685

Support : 4530 / 4515 / 4485 / 4460

SENSEX (15331.94)

Resistance : 15450 / 15585 / 16045

Support : 15280 / 15205 / 15105

NIFTY FUT (4566)

Resistance : 4605 / 4645 / 4680

Support : 4535 / 4490 / 4450

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) up with increasing volumes indicating forming of short positions at higher levels.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

On Wednesday,Opening Is Flat To Down,

Buy NIFTY Above 4570,Sl Below 4555,Tgt 4600/20/35/60/75

Sell NIFTY Below 4545,Sl Above 4560,Tgt 4530/05/4480/65/40

BUY

IVRCLINFRA Above 345,Sl 340

APIL Above 540,Sl 530,Tgt 545/50/55/60

KFA Above 50,Sl 47,Tgt 53/55/57

SCI Above 125,Sl 120,Tgt 130/35/40

RELINFRA Above 1180/85,Sl 1170,Tgt 1210/20/30/40

SELL

RELCAP Below 905/900,Sl 915,Tgt 890/80/70

SBIN (1682),Sl Above 1700,Tgt 1665/55/45

INFOSYS Below 2010,Sl 2035,Tgt 1990/80/70

FUTURES July

SAIL (177.5)

Support : 175/173

Resistance : 178/180/182/185

RELINFRA (1210) : Buy@ 1195,Sl 1170,Tgt 1215/30/40+

ICSA : Buy@ 186,Sl 184,Tgt 188/90.6/92.5/94.3/96/98++ (Lot Size : 1200)

INFOSYS(1995) : Sell@ 2010,Sl 2035,Tgt 1995/85/75/65

RELCAP (892) : Sell@ 900,SL 915,Tgt 890/80

BANKINDIA : Sell@ 322,Sl 325,Tgt 319/17/15/13/10/06/04++ (Lot Size : 950)

Markets For 28/07/2009

Market has consolidated today as it is in SHAREBAZAARONLINE’s Weekly mentioned Resistance Range.

Hence the decisive move may happen tomorrow after RBI announces its credit policy. There were lot of fears in the market after the Budget that the Interest rates are headed up due to the borrowing programme of the government.

Some people in the market even today feel that interest rates can go as high as 100 basis points which in our opinion is an overstretched expectations. We infact feel that RBI may leave the rates unchanged and this will be a major boost for the bank stocks. Some bank stocks were already reflecting this opinion in their prices today.

The government & the RBI cannot afford to let the rates rise and should do everything so that consumer confidence is not affected.

The latest issue of Money Today talks about the importance of Financial Planning and deals with all aspects of the same, we feel everyone should have a look atleast at the libraries.

NIFTY (4572)

Resistance : 4605 / 4635 / 4665

Support : 4535 / 4495 / 4445

SENSEX (15375.04)

Resistance : 15495 / 15595

Support : 15260 / 15125

NIFTY FUT (4576.3)

Resistance : 4615 / 4640 / 4665 / 4680

Support : 4565 / 4530 / 4505 / 4485

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) up with decreasing volumes indicating forming of short positions at higher levels.

We expect profit booking at higher levels.

On Tuesday,Opening Is Flat To Up,

Buy NIFTY Above 4570,Sl Below 4555,Tgt 4600/35/70/95

Sell NIFTY Below 4545,Sl Above 4560,Tgt 4540/05/4470/25

ACC

Buy Above 850,Sl 845,Tgt 860/65/70/75/80

Sell Below 840,Sl 845,Tgt 830/25/20/15/10

ICICI BANK

Buy Above 765,Sl 755,Tgt 775/85/95+

Sell Below 750,Sl 760,Tgt 740/30/20+

RPL

Buy Above 123,Sl 121,Tgt 125/27/29/31

Sell Below 120,Sl 122,Tgt 118/16/14/12

Buy CIPLA Above 285/90,Sl 280

Buy ICSA Above 180,Sl 175,Tgt 185/90/95

Buy KFA Above 50,Sl 48,Tgt 53/55/57+

Buy NAGARRCONST Above 140,Sl 135,Tgt 145/50/55+

Buy KOTAKBNK Above 660,Sl 650,Tgt 675/80/85/90/95+

Sell RECL Below 175,Sl 180,Tgt 170/65/60/55

Sell SBIN (1711),Sl Above 1730,Tgt 1695/80/70

FUTURES JULY

Buy OPTOCIRCUIT (173.8) July, Sl 168,Tgt 177/79/81/83/86

Buy ADLABS@ 360/65,Sl 355,Tgt 370/75/80/85/90/95+ [Lot Size : 900]

Sell HDFC Below 2380,Sl 2395,Tgt 2360/45/25/05/2290/65/40/15 [Lot Size : 150]

Markets For 27/07/2009

NIFTY (4568.55)

Resistance : 4595 / 4625 / 4640 / 4680

Support : 4550 / 4525 / 4500 / 4465 / 4445

SENSEX (15378.96)

Resistance : 15475 / 15580 / 16045

Support : 15225 / 15100 / 14960

NIFTY FUT (4575)

Resistance : 4585 / 4605 / 4655 / 4710 / 4795

Support : 4520 / 4465 / 4420 / 4395 / 4340

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) up with decreasing volumes indicating forming of long positions. NIFTY Has Supports@ 4430 & 4380 (39 DMA)

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

Results On 27/08/2009 :

NTPC / DABUR / TITAN / AREVA / KARNATAKA BNK / BALRMPUR CHINI / CBI / CADILA / GUJ ALKALI / CENTURY TEXTILES / HTMEDIA

On Monday,Opening Is Flat To Up,

Buy NIFTY Above 4575,S Below 4555,Tgt 4595/4615/30/55/75/90

Sell NIFTY Below 4550,Sl Above 4570,Tgt 4530/10/4495/70/50/35

Some Stocks With Market Sources :

ACC: Stock Moved Down After Good Results. Only Above 870/80,Stock Is In Bullish Zone

BALRAMCHINI : Is In Bullish Zone,Can Be Bought On Dips

BHARATFORGE : Stock Is Bullish Zone.For Long Positional Holders, Hold With Sl 145

GITANJALI : Above 105/10 Will Be In Bullish Zone

LNT : Below 1600 Is In Bearish Zone

NTPC : Is In Bullish Zone,Can Be Bought On Dips

STERLING BIOTECH : Above 105,Next Tgt 115/25

BUY (Positional)

INDIANHOTEL Above 65,Sl 60,Tgt 70/75/80

MERCATOR,Sl 55,Tgt 65/70/75

APTECH Above 165,Sl 160,Tgt 170/75/80/85+

PANTALOONR (523574),Sl 280,Tgt 295/305/15+

BHARATFORGE (500493),Sl 175,Tgt 185/95/205/15+

MATRIXLABS Above 210,Sl 195,Tgt 225/35/45/55

GMRINFRA,Tgt 180/85/90/95

GVKPIL,Tgt 45/50/55

ERAINFRA,Tgt 160/65

HEG,Tgt 250/60/70

ASTRAMOCRO,Tgt 75/80/85

WELSPUNGUJ,Tgt 275/80/85/90/95+

INTRADAY

Buy

ITC Above 230,Sl 225,Tgt 235/40

RENUKA Above 150,Sl 145,Tgt 155/60

RELINFRA,Sl 1150,Tgt 1165/75/85

SUZLON,Sl 100,Tgt 105/10/15

Sell

SBIN (1699),Sl Above 1715,Tgt 1685/75/65

HDFC

Buy Above 2430,Sl 2410,Tgt 2445/70/90+

Sell Below 2405,Sl 2425,Tgt 2395/70/45+

INDIAINFO

Buy Above 124,Sl 122.Tgt 127/29/31

Sell Below 121,Sl 123,Tgt 118/16/14

RPL

Buy Above 130,Sl 125,Tgt 135/40/45

Sell Below 125,Sl 130,Tgt 120/15/10

MHRIL

Buy Above 380,Sl 375,Tgt 385/90/95

Sell Below 375,Sl 380,Tgt 370/65/60

RCOM

Buy Above 275,Sl 270,Tgt 280/85/90/95

Sell Below 275,Sl 20,Tgt 270/65/60/55

FUTURES

Buy M&M July@ 830/35,Sl 825,Tgt 840/45/50/55/60/65/70/75/80/85/90/95+ (Lot Size : 312)

Sell INDIAINFO July Below 125,Sl 127,Tgt 122/20/18.8/17.6/16.4/15/13.7+ (Lot Size : 2500)

Markets Weekly For 27/07 To 31/07/2009

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (4568.55) : Huge Supports@ 14400 or 4420,Below 4420 Next Support@ 4380 & 4300. Big Resistance@ 4655 & 4770,If Sustained For Week, Next Tgt 5200/500/800

Resistance : 4590 / 4620 / 4655 / 4710 / 4770 / 4795

Support : 4510 / 4530 / 4485 / 4440 / 4385 / 4350 / 4275

It is said that the stock markets are cyclical in nature. When the first rally began in 2003-04 Sugar,auto and It stocks were the leaders. While large cap I.T stock like Infosys technology is 20% away from all time highs, Auto companies have already started making all time highs. Hero Honda and Maruti the leading motorbike and Carmaker have lead the up move. Though the up move in both of these companies might be nearing resistance zone, the upmove in indigenous auto ancillary stocks might just have started. To name a few keep a watch on companies that depend 100% for orders on Hero Honda and Maruti. Yes the safety net that comes with diversification is missing, at the same time the trouble that auto ancillary makers around the world are facing is non-existent with these companies. Around a month back we had covered a company from the Hero Honda group that supplies Cold forge components gears and shafts to Hero Honda. The fortunes of this company is clearly linked with that of its parent group, Hero cycles. While Hero Honda is not cheap trading at a PE of 23X FY09. This company traded at an abysmal Pe of 5X FY09. At the same time the business was available at 2X FY09EBITDA. OPM is at a healthy 25%. People who look for future growth will be interested in the 170crs Greenfield unit that is operational from April. I am not naming the company, as I strongly believe that food tastes best when it’s self-made. Further Info Company is trading at 0.5X Fy09sales and is owned 75% by the promoter group. Also watch for other auto ancillary stocks. This sector might have just started its Bull Run.

ICICI Bank reported quarterly earnings on Saturday. On the face of it the result looked good. Consolidated net profits up 67.8% with marginal declines in total income. Operating profits up 47.5%. Expenditure reduced by 15%. When one scrutinizes the number further the reason for reporting profits are known. The company made 1097 crs in Treasury operations. On retail banking company has posted a loss of 473 crs vis a vis a profit of 129 crs. On wholesale banking front the company has posted a net profit of 676 crs vis a vis profits last year of 1190 crs. Company had a huge unsecured loan book in retail loan is a well-known fact. But the 43% drop in wholesale banking profits is surprising for people who track ICICI bank. Technically the stock needs to cross 805 to be Bullish. The Treasury income will be negative once the interest rate starts rising and at that point of time the going for ICICI might be bearish. Stock has already moved 3X from March lows and it only makes sense to book profits when the going is good. I have no short trades on ICICI as markets nowadays see more short squeeze on technical movements then selling on Fundamental news.

Adani power Ipo might at best be avoided. I am personally awaiting NHPC IPO scheduled to be launched next week. Even if NHPC opens around IPO price the company will definitely give superior returns on a Long-term basis? Adani Power current capacity is 330 MW and company is planning 6600 MW capacities. While the Ipo market suggest a positive 10-15 rs opening for the company. I personally wont subscribe to the issue. Yes the Adanis have execution capabilities which they have demonstrated in the past but as the saying goes,” How will one dine when there is nothing left on the Table.”

Coming to Nifty watch for 4795 as the upper trendline of the current upmove. On weakness watch if 4395 gets broken. Markets will react to ICICI and RIL numbers on Monday. If 4600 is not crossed convincingly, its time to be cautious.

SECTOR WATCH : AUTO (Bullish)
Last weeks trade showing long positions build up in AUTO COUNTERS. Total OI of ASHOKLEY FUT up 14.59% prices up 5.43%, M&M FUT up 17.52% prices up 6.74% MARUTI FUT up 17.97% prices up 16.53% and TATAMOTORS FUT up 17.42% prices up 18.39% last week. We expect up move to continue in next week.

STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK : TATAPOWER FUT (Bullish)
Total OI of TATAPOWER FUT up 140.59% prices up 1.89% last week. ATAPOWER JULY FUT Intraday high 1185.90, Intraday low 1111.10 last week. We expect up move in coming week.

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-

1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 17.03%, NIFTY (JULY) FUT closed up 4.43% last week.

2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 43 Stock FUTS closed positive, 3 Stock FUTs closed negative and 4 Stock FUTs close flat last week.

3) OI of current series NIFTY 4300 CE is down 38.57% prices up 86.35%, NIFTY 4400 CE is down 8.82% prices up 101.20% and NIFTY 4500 CE is down 13.73% prices up 105.71% last week showing profit booking. OI of NIFTY 4600 CE is up 1.70% prices up 84.38% and NIFTY 4700 CE is up 3.12% prices up 56.25% showing buying. NIFTY 4700 CE is 38.12 LK highest OI in CALLs.

4) OI of current series NIFTY 4300 PE is up 15.58% prices down 87.34% showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 4400 PE is up 153.49% prices down 82.66% and NIFTY 4500 PE is up 220.15% prices down 74% showing aggressive put writing. OI of NIFTY 4000 PE is 67.62 LK highest OI in PUTs.

5) Total OI of JULY series CALLs is down by 31.65 LK to 2.65 CR, JULY series PUTs is up by 28.12 LK to 4.33 CR. NIFTY JULY series PCR (OI) at 1.63, monthly highest levels.

Conclusion :-

NIFTY SPOT Support 4500-4510, 4450-60 levels, below 4440 levels, Strong Supports 4380-90 levels. I don't think NIFTY SPOT will trade below 4370 levels in worst condition. Bounce expected from near 4380 levels. On up side, NIFTY SPOT will try to touch 4580-90, 4610-20 levels.

This Week Will Remain Highly Volatile Due To MONETARY POLICY on 28^th & F&O Expiry on 30^th.

Markets For 23/07/2009

Daily Market Outlook: 23 July 2009

Sensex sustainability above 15000 is one of the major concerns and that seems to be coming true as of now as though the Sensex opened gap and did touched a high of 15369 level it wasnt able to sustain higher level and ultimately started to slip from this level to not only touch a low of 14786 points, but end the day at 14843 points down by 219 points or 1.46 per cent. This more or less was expected considering the fact that the markets have moved up quite sharply prior to that and profit booking was expected at some point in time. Currently the Sensex has broken the support level of 15050 level, which has now turned in to a resistance. Besides the weakness was all around the sectoral indices as none of the indices actually showed any kind of resilience and ended down in the red. We again reiterate on the fact that the Sensex has moved up quite a lot and it isnt able to show that confident upward movement. Besides, on the fundamental side to on trailing twelve months earnings Sensex is available at 19.5x, which is higher than its historical average of 15- 16x.

NIFTY (4398.9)

Resistance : 4435 / 4485 / 4510 / 4625

Support : 4350 / 4335 / 4305 / 4270 / 4245

SENSEX (14843)

Resistance : 15130 / 15215 / 15580

Support : 14630 / 14550 / 14425 / 14295

NIFTY FUT (4405)

Resistance : 4455 / 4520 / 4565 / 4635

Support : 4370 / 4340 / 4290 / 4255

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI down 3.04% with 48% increasing volumes indicating not only unwinding of long positions but forming of short positions for STBT.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade negative with volatility.

On Thursday,Opening Is Flat To Down,

Buy NIFTY Above 4440,Sl Below 4420,Tgt 4520/65

Sell NIFTY Below 4415,Sl Above 4435,Tgt 4340/4290

BUY

GLAXO Above 1315,Sl 1280,Tgt 1350/80/1420/50

NTPC Above 185,Sl 180,Tgt 195/200/05/10

UNIONBNK Above 265,Sl 260,Tgt 270/75/80

MOSERBAER Above 80,Sl 75,Tgt 85/90/95

SELL

BHARTI Below 820,Sl 830,Tgt 810/800/790

ABB Below 720,Sl 730,Tgt 700/690

ACC Below 820,Sl 830,Tgt 800/790

DLF Below 345,Sl 350,Tgt 340/35/30

SBIN (1694),Sl Above 1715,Tgt 1675/60/50

FUTURES

Buy ICICIBNK,Sl 750,Tgt 780/795/810

Buy BHEL (2151)@ 2110/20,Sl 2070,Tgt 2155/65/75/85 (Close Above 2175,Hold Overnight)

Buy INFY (1919)@ 1890/95,Sl 1855,Tgt 1920/30/40/50 (Close Above 1930,Hold Overnight)

Buy ONGC (1093)@ 1080/85,Sl 1065,Tgt 1100/10/20/30

Buy MOSERBAER@ 82/83,Sl 80,Tgt 84.2/85/85.8/86.6/87.4/88.3/89.4 [Lot Size : 2475]

Sell HDFC@ 2420,Sl 2445,Tgt 2405/2395/80/60/40/20/05/2285/65/40