Markets Weekly For 6/4 To 9/4/09

MARKET SUMMARY

Key benchmark indices climbed to close at its best in five months on the back of strong global cues. Index jumped in the opening trade, led by heavyweights like Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HDFC, L&T and ONGC leading from the front, after positive U.S. data boosted optimism the global economy had turned a corner. Investors are also expecting
that G-20 meet help the major global economies to revive from the global recession. Index has further gained ground on the back of all round buying witnessed in the scrips across the sectors due to strong opening in the European market and US index future. Inflation rose slightly in the third week of March as against expectations of further
decline, halting its slide towards sub-zero levels. Sensex today crossed the psychological 10,000 mark and Nifty index closed above the 3,200 mark. Finally, the Sensex surged 446 points to close at 10,349 and the Nifty surged 150 points at 3,211.

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-
1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 4.59%, NIFTY FUT up 3.14% last week.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 32 Stock FUTS closed positive, 9 Stock FUTs closed negative and 9 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
3) OI of NIFTY 3200 CE is up 50.11% prices up 37.55%, NIFTY 3300 CE is up 161.40% prices up 38.63% and NIFTY 3400 CE is up 191.76% prices up 36.25% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 3200 CE is 31.11 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of NIFTY 3000 PE is up 70.02% prices down 44.38%, NIFTY 3100 PE is up 104.10% prices down 40.47% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 3000 PE is 63.36 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of APR series CALLs is up by 32.29 LK to 1.98 CR. APR series PUTs is up by 1.01 CR to 4.26 CR last week. APR series PCR (OI) at 2.14. Total OI of APR series PUTs (single series) at 4.26 CR, higher than total OI of NIFTY FUT (all series) 3.98 CR.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY FUTURE
Trend : Volatile
Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 4.59%, NIFTY FUT up 3.14% last week. OI of NIFTY 3200 CE is up 50.11% prices up 37.55%, NIFTY 3300 CE is up 161.40% prices up 38.63%, NIFTY 3400 CE is up 191.76% prices up 36.25% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 3000 PE is up 70.02% prices down 44.38%, NIFTY 3100 PE is up 104.10% prices down 40.47% last week showing put writing.

We expect NIFTY SPOT to show up move then profit booking expected at higher levels. NIFTY SPOT Resistance at 3330-40 levels, strong resistance at 3380-90 levels. On down side, NIFTY SPOT support at 3130-40,3090-3100, strong Support at 3020-30 levels.

SECTOR WATCH
REFINERY
Trend : Bullish
Total OI of CHENNPETRO FUT up 36.43% prices up 12.21%, MRPL FUT up 51.02% prices up 3.02%, RPL FUT up 1.80% prices up 8.03% last week.

Refinery counters showing long positions build up. We expect positive move in coming week.

Conclusion :-
I expect NIFTY SPOT will show up move followed by profit booking at higher levels next week. NIFTY SPOT Resistance at 3330-40 levels above 3350 levels, strong Resistance at 3380-90 levels. I expect profit booking near these levels. Sudden unwinding of longs not ruled out which will some time result in sharp INTRADAY fall. On down side, NIFTY SPOT Support at 3170-80, 3130-40, 3090-3100 levels, below 3080 levels, Strong support at 3020-30 levels.

Weekly Trend (06-04-2009 to 09-04-2009) Volatile and Mix

2795 / 2860 / 2900 / 3025 / 3040 / 3125 [ NIFTY : 3211.05 ] 3290 / 3305 / 3365 / 3390 / 3405 / 3495

9310 / 9565 / 9710-35 / 9935 / 10135 [SENSEX : 10348.83] 10475 / 10645-85 / 10890 / 10970 / 11100

2845 / 2955 / 3035 / 3135 / 3170 [NIFTY FUT : 3222.6] 3290 / 3330 / 3380 / 3430

3600 / 3825 / 4015 / 4140 / 4255 [BANK NIFTY : 4423.85 ] 4670 / 4760 / 4835 / 4910