Markets Weekly For 20/04/2009 To 24/04/2009

Weekly Trend (20-04-2009 to 24-04-2009)

3125 / 3150 / 3190 / 3230 / 3265 / 3305 / 3320 / 3350 [NIFTY SPOT] 3415 / 3480 / 3520 / 3560 / 3615 / 3660 / 3715

10010-35 / 10230 / 10385 / 10475 / 10655 / 10760 [SENSEX] 11110 / 11355 / 11530 / 11650 / 11725 / 11890 / 12080

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY FUTURE

-> Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 2.02%, NIFTY FUT flat last week. OI of NIFTY 3200 CE is down 18.39% prices up 4.66%, NIFTY 3300 CE is down 15.54% prices up 4.79% last week showing profit booking. A decrease in the cost of carry indicates profit booking at higher levels.

-> OI of NIFTY 3400 CE is up 17.02%prices up 3.87% last week showing profit booking plus call writing at higher levels.

OI of NIFTY 3500 CE is up 48.83% prices up 5.58%, NIFTY 3600 CE is up 93.10% prices up 5.30% last week showing aggressive call writing at higher levels.

-> OI of NIFTY 3100 PE is down 11.25% prices down 40.26% last week showing short covering. OI of NIFTY 3200 PE is up 5.64% prices down 27.92% showing not only short covering plus buying at lower levels.

-> OI of NIFTY 3300 PE is up 74.74% prices down 19.58%, NIFTY 3400 PE is up 114.63% prices down 16.68% last week showing value buying at lower levels.

-> Implied volatility of Options has decreased marginally by around 100-200 basis points indicating, buying should come on declines.

-> NIFTY (April) Future turned into a discount of 3.1 points from a premium 6.1 points and around 10.82 lakh shares were reduced in open interest.

Total open interest in the market was Rs86,238 crore and Rs1,588 crore were added in open interest. Around 10.82 lakh shares were reduced in open interest.

-> Nifty call option added 12.99 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 20.76 lakh shares in open interest.

-> Hindustan Zinc (-46%), Thermax (-42%), United Phosphorous (-32%) and Cummins India (-28%) were the top open interest losers in the market.

HCL Infosystems (414%), Patni Computer Systems (178%), Indian Bank (73%), Gateway Distriparks (58%) and Balrampur Chini (41%) were the top open interest gainers in the market.

We expect NIFTY SPOT to show down move with volatility next week.NIFTY SPOT support at 3320-50, 3265-75 levels, strong support at 3220-30 levels. On up side, NIFTY

SPOT resistance at 3440-50, 3480-3520 levels, strong resistance at 3550-60 levels.

SECTOR WATCH

CAPITAL GOODS

Trend : Bullish

-> Total OI of ABB FUT up 17.91% prices up 9.46%, APIL FUT up 14.22% prices up 7.48%, BHEL FUT down 3.45% prices up 9.18%, CROMPGREAV FUT down 63.96% prices up 11.66%, COMMINSIND FUT up 56.76% prices up 4.82%, LT FUT flat prices up 4.40% and SIEMENS FUT up 18.65% prices up 4.87% last week.

-> CROMPGREAV FUT showing short covering. BHEL FUT and LT FUT showing short covering plus buying.

We expect CAPITAL GOODS SECTOR to outperform next week.

STEEL

Trend : Bearish

-> Total OI of JINDALSTEL FUT down 19.54% prices up 2.99%, JSWSTEEL FUT down 9.18% prices down 9.44%, SAIL FUT up 5.81% prices down 3.95% and TATASTEEL FUT up 11.34% prices down 1.08% last week. TATASTEEL FUT and SAIL FUT showing not only unwinding plus forming of shorts too.

We expect STEEL SECTOR to under perform next week.