Markets Weekly From 28/09/2009 To 02/10/2009

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WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

It was a mildly choppy week for our market with poor global cues and end of an F&O series. Nifty Fut. made the weekly low of 4909.25 we expect going further global cues will give direction to our market for October series. This week's average figures were: Sensex and Nifty both down 0.3%. BSE Midcap index was up 0.6%, BSE Small cap index up 1% over the week. BSE Healthcare index was up 6%, BSE Bankex index and BSE Oil & Gas index both up 1% and BSE Metal index down 3.9% while BSE IT index was down 3%.

We feel the market will make a decisive move in the next few days or mid October as corporate results begin to come in. Sensex shut shop at 16693, down 88 points and Nifty at 4958, down 27 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.32% and BSE Small cap index was up 0.91%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 753 against declines of 508 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Sun Pharma, Ranbaxy and Cipla while losers were HCL Technologies, Wipro and ICICI Bank.

Now week starting from September 29, 2009 we expect Nifty fut. to face resistance at 5005 and there after 5050 & 5115 where as the support for the index is at 4900, 4835 & 4765. Until, unless we do not make a decisive break below 4765 the dips can be used for buying.

DOW has huge Supports Around 9600/9625, Two Days Close Below 9600/9575,Can Bring Some Panic

NIFTY (4958.95)

Resistance : 5030 / 5060 / 5095 / 5145

Support : 4910 / 4895 / 4840 / 4750 / 4705

SENSEX (16693)

Resistance : 16710 / 16930 / 17045 / 17160 / 17285

Support : 16475 / 16395 / 16260 / 16130 / 15900

NIFTY FUT (4967.25)

Resistance : 4975 / 5005 / 5050 / 5115

Support : 4900 / 4835 / 4765 / 4690

BANK NIFTY (8467.35)

Resistance : 8575 / 8680

Support : 8455 / 8350 / 8235

Observation:-

1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 20.50%, NIFTY FUT close flat last week. OI down due to expiry. NIFTY FUT premium increased by 6 points to 8 points from 2 points compare to NIFTY SPOT last week. New series begin with 2.52 CR OI.

2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 11 Stock FUTS closed positive, 23 Stock FUTs closed negative and 16 Stock FUTs close flat last week.

3) OI of current series NIFTY 5000 CE is up 157.38% prices down 21.22% showing call writing. OI of current series 5100 CE is up 133.72% prices down 26.85% and 5200 CE is up 58.79% prices down 33.05% showing unwinding plus call writing last week. OI of NIFTY 5000 CE is 32.25 LK highest OI in CALLLs.

4) OI of current series NIFTY 4600 PE is up 91.52% prices down 22.29% showing put writing. OI of current series NIFTY 4700 PE is up 162.62% prices down 19.03%, NIFTY 4800 PE is up 100.32% prices down 16.92%, NIFTY 4900 PE is up 448.91% prices up 12.33% and NIFTY 5000 PE is up 264.75% prices down 7.54% last week showing put buying. OI of NIFTY 4900 PE is 43.39 LK highest OI in PUTs.

5) Total OI of OCTOBER series CALLs is up by 97.02 LK to 1.78 CR, OCTO series PUTs is up by 1.09 CR to 2.48 CR. NIFTY OCTO series PCR (OI) at 1.39 down by 30 points

SECTOR WATCH : PHARMA (BREAKOUT ON CARDS)

Last weeks trade showing long build up in PHARMA COUNTERS. Most of them hitting 52 week high last week.

AUROPHARMA FUT : OI up 47.60% prices up 9.62% last week. Key R 765, 790. S 710, 693.

BIOCON FUT : OI up 5.71% prices up 10.54% last week. Key R 262, 283. S 239, 234.

DRREDDY FUT : OI up 12.98% prices up 14.06% last week. Key R 1004, 1030. S 902, 876.

ORCHIDCHEM FUT : OI up 25.86% prices up 9.22% last week. Key R 188, 193. S 148, 139.

RANBAXY FUT : OI up 7.47% prices up 14.24% last week. Key R 435, 439. S 389, 383.

DIVISLAB FUT, GLAXOFUT, LUPIN FUT and PIRAHEALTH FUT also looks positive.

STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK : SESAGOA FUT

SESAGOA FUT showed weakness last week. OI up 28.32% prices down 7.71% last week. OI up despite expiry. Key Resistances@ 274 / 284 & Key Supports@ 247 / 238.

Below 247 more selling expected for TGTs 229, 223.

Conclusion :-

I expect NIFTY to trade volatile next week. On down side, NIFTY SPOT Supports@ 4870-80, 4830-40 levels. Strong Supports@ 4750-60 levels.

Expect bounce from 4750-60 levels. On up side, NIFTY SPOT Resistances@ 5050-60, 5085-95, Strong Resistance@ 5135-45,

If Sustains Above 5095 levels will attract Short Covering and Trades Below 4750 levels will attract Fresh Selling. Wild swings not ruled out next week.

BUY POSITIONAL

CIPLA,Sl 255,Tgt 275/85

IBREAL,Sl 255,Tgt 280/90

PROVOGUE@ 65,Sl 60,Tgt 75/80/85

KLGSTEEL@ 230,Sl 220,Tgt 255/65

RNRL@ 86/88,Sl 80,Tgt 95/100/105+

RELIANCE@ 2120/40,Sl 2100,Tgt 2190/2210++