Wish To Become Our Premium Paid Clients,Please Visit :
www.Sharebazaaronline.blogspot.com
www.Sharebazaaronline.ning.com
http://sites google.com/site/Sharebazaaronline/
http://groups.google.com.group.Sharebazaaronline
Sharebazaaronline@ymail.com
Sharebazaaronline@gmail.com
Take A Weekly Trial Pack For Just Rs 500,Includes NIFTY, FUTURES, CASH, OPTIONS, COMMODITY, CURRENCY
Join Us For Free
Type " JOIN SHAREBAZAARONL " & Send Sms To 567678
Type " JOIN SHAREBAZAARONL " & Send Sms To 560700
In our previous Weekly Market analysis we had mentioned that: “…..The 4570 base created during the week is going to provide a good support to Market in the coming trading sessions. Even if it manages to go below 4570, there is another good support zone around 4510. So, Buy trades should be preferred as long as 4510-4570 zone is respected.……..“. whereas in our Daily presentation on Thursday it was presented that “……4750-4780 zone is the area where the correction should find support and Market should again continue its upmove..…, Bravehearts can open buy positions around 4795 (Nifty Futures) for target of 4870 with a stop loss of maintaining below 4740….…”.Market opened the week on a flat note and had a strong upmove on Monday itself. For rest of trading sessions intraday price action was mostly sideways in nature, thought the week closed with gains of nearly 3%. However, we should note that upmoves are getting smaller and smaller as the Market is moving forward. Further, Nifty has reached a statistical resistance area on long term charts. We need to have a weekly close beyond 4900 zone for the uptrend to continue. In which case there can be an extended accelerated upmove in coming weeks Otherwise there is a possibility of start of a small downmove which can extend in coming weeks upto 4350 with support in between around 4570 area.
Resistance : 4850 / 4925 / 4975 / 5035
Support : 4770 / 4715 / 4680 / 4645 / 4580
Resistance : 16445 / 16695 / 16775 / 16855 / 16915 / 17200
Support : 16125 / 15920 / 15795 / 15685 / 15425 / 15100 / 14800
Nifty opened the week on a positive note at 4682.40 levels and showed good strength during the week and Nifty made high of 4889.05. Some profit booking was seen from resistance near 4895 levels but Nifty closed in green at 4829.55 with 3.19% gains. Volumes have been lower than previous week. Bulls managed to
close Nifty above 4750 levels, which show bulls are having upper hand. As long as, Nifty trades above 4735-4750 levels, Nifty’s intermediate trend remains up and higher prices till 5200-5300 in coming weeks may be seen. If Nifty declines below 4735 level then selling pressure till 4550
may be seen.
For trading during the coming trading sessions, trend deciding level is 4735-4750. If Nifty shows respect for 4735 levels then we may see a rally to 4895/4950/5025/5095. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4735 levels then decline to 4650/4550/4400-4350 may be seen.
Total OI of ALBK FUT up 14.60% prices up 13.59%, ANDHRABANK FUT up 57.91% prices up 4.59%, BANKBARODA FUT up 13.70% prices up 6.10%, BANKINDIA FUT up 23.77% prices up 3.68%, CANBK FUT up 22.34% prices up 4.43%, DENABANK FUT up 33.08% prices up 9.01%, IOB FUT up 42.71% prices up 7.76%, ORIENTBANK FUT up 87.68% prices up 14.26%, SYNDIBANK FUT up 102.41% prices up 3.82%, UCOBANK FUT up 27.48% prices up 3.52% and VIJAYABANK FUT up 31.99% prices up 2.77% last week.
PSU BANKING sector showing positive build up last week. We expect up move in coming week.
STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK : SYNDIBANK FUT (Bullish)
Total OI of SYNDIBANK FUT up 102.41% prices up 3.82% last week. SYNDIBANK (SEP) FUT Intraday high 84.80, Intraday low 80.50 last week.
Above 85 levels, STOCK FUT to show strong up move in coming week.
Observation:-
1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 9.46%, NIFTY SEP FUT up 3.11%. NIFTY SEP FUT premium decreased by 3 points to 12 points from 15 points compare to NIFTY SPOT last week.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 24 Stock FUTS closed positive, 15 Stock FUTs closed negative and 11 Stock FUTs close flat last week.
3) OI of current series NIFTY 4700 CE is down 35.80% prices up 41.85% and NIFTY 4800 CE is down 7.81% prices up 38.69% showing profit booking. OI of NIFTY 4900 CE is up 66.08% prices up 26.86% and NIFTY 5000 CE is up 32.61% prices up 9.82% showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 4900 CE is 51.75 LK highest oi in CALLLs.
4) OI of current series NIFTY 4600 PE is up 43.38% prices down 68.01%, NIFTY 4700 PE is up 69.28% prices down 63.54% and NIFTY 4800 PE is up 483.95% prices down 57.33% showing aggressive put writing. OI of NIFTY 4600 PE is 65.85 LK highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of SEP series CALLs is up by 22.57 LK to 2.34 CR, SEP series PUTs is up by 90.59 LK to 3.93 CR. NIFTY SEP series PCR (OI) at 1.68 up by 25 points.
Trading strategy for Medium term investors:
Medium term Buy positions as presented in our previous weekly presentation should be carried forward with a modified stop loss of Nifty Futures maintaining below 4770. On Medium term basis there are two possibilities; once Nifty futures closes on weekly basis beyond 4900, we can have an extended accelerated upmove. Otherwise, there can be a downward downmove towards 4570-4350 zone. So either protect profits by booking partial profits or Buy Puts. And carry Buy positions forward.
New buy positions can be taken around current levels of 4840 for a target of 4950 with a stop loss of Nifty futures maintaining below 4770.
For day-trading purposes on Monday:
Buy trades should be taken in NIFTY FUTURES around 4825 for a target of 4885 with a stop loss of Futures maintaining below 4795. Intraday Sell trades will be appropriate only after NIFTY Futures maintain below 4790.
As long as, Nifty trades above 4735-4750 levels, Nifty’s intermediate trend remains up and higher prices till 5200-5300 in coming weeks may be seen. If Nifty declines below 4735 level then selling pressure till 4550 may be seen.
For trading during the coming trading sessions, trend deciding level is 4735-4750. If Nifty shows respect for 4735 levels then we may see a rally to 4895/4950/5025/5095. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4735 levels then decline to 4650/4550/4400-4350 may be seen.
I expect NIFTY SPOT to show up move first for Tgt 4880-90, 4920-30. Above 4940 levels, next TGT will be 4970-80 levels.
Interesting to see NIFTY move above 4970 levels because of mercy put writing last week.
Failed to sustain above 4970 levels means possibility of sudden sell off.
On downside, NIFTY SPOT S 4770-80, 4720-10 levels. Below 4710 levels, next TGT will be 4640-50 levels.
(High Risk-High Return)
Ashok Leyland is a part of Hinduja Group. The company has six manufacturing plants - the mother plant at Ennore near Chennai, two plants at Hosur (called Hosur I and Hosur II, along with a Press shop), the assembly plants at Alwar and Bhandara. The total covered space at these six plants exceeds 450,000 sq m. The company’s portfolio includes buses, trucks, engines, special vehicles and defence vehicles. Ashok Leyland controls 20 per cent of the country’s truck market and 57 per cent of the bus market.
Recovery in Vehicles Sales – The company is witnessing strong sales growth in recent months after falling drastically in April 09 and May 09. Therefore the company will see good realisation from the second quarter of FY 10. This is also on the back of revival of Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Industry.
Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Industry Recovery- Our projections are based on the assumption that there on recovery in Commercial Vehicle Industry.
Debt-Equity Ratio- The company has increased the debt equity ratio to 0.9 (excluding revaluation of Land and Building) in FY 09 compared to 0.4 in FY 08. This could further rise to 1.1 (excluding revaluation of Land and Building) if the company raises fund through debt.
Prices are volatile – The raw material and the steel prices are volatile. Any steep rise or fall will affect the margins and the profitability of the company.
The company is seeing the revival in the number of vehicles sold. The Uttrakhandl plant is coming up in FY 10 for which the company will get the tax benefits. The company is expected to have an EPS of Rs.2.14 for the Face Value of Rs.1 in FY 10. The company is trading at 1 year forward PE of Rs.18.9. The Investors are recommended to BUY
the stock in the range Rs.38-41 with target of Rs.50 for medium term.
(High Risk-High Return)
Balaji Telefilms Limited (BTL) is a successful media company and the one of largest television content provider in
Company revenues are dependent on how the company’s content are perceived in the masses, measured by TRP. Any dip in its serials can translate to a dip in top line and bottom line. The number of GEC channels is limited and that limits the prime time slots. BTL would face stiff competition from other content players. The company might face challenge from emerging entertainment forms like reality TV etc. Company has a host of subsidiaries, some of which have not been doing well and the result is reflected on the consolidated P&L and Balance sheet. Such unsuccessful ventures can continue to erode the company’s profits and would make the business transformation to take place over a longer period of time.
Balaji Telefilms had a trying time last year when some of its popular serials went off-air and some of its new serials did not do as well as it had anticipated. The company also had to re-negotiate its contract with Star. But, with new approach of targeting multiple channels across different genres would aid the company in reporting better bottom-lin than previous year, which was affected by write downs and many popular serials being taken off-air . We also expect the company to increase its commissioned hour and revenues in the coming quarter. The company is also in the process of establishing its studio to lower the production cost. The new business strategy transformation would take time. Balaji has nearly Rs 230 Cr invested in debt mutual funds and is in the position to leverage its balance sheet for any future endeavors. We have projected that the company would post a forward EPS of 4.45 for FY10. With cash (in investment) at Rs 36 and an EPS 4.45 in FY10 a target of Rs 88 is quiet achievable on the counter. We recommend investors to “Buy” the counter in range Rs 65-68 with target Rs 88. However, due to volatility in market a 10-15% downside cannot be ruled out.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment