Sharebazaaronline Weekly's

Technically
We had hoped for a pull back last week but there are no signs of it. In fact, the market has retraced back the entire weekly gain that was registered on 28/03/08. Last week, the Sensex opened at 16226.66 attained a high at 16236.70 and fell to a low of 15297.96 before it closed the week at 15343.12 thereby showed a net fall of 1031 points on a week-to-week basis.Weekly resistance will be at 15625-15953-16500. Weekly support will be at 15015-14677-14076.On the daily chart, support will be 15300. On sustained fall and close below 15300, expect a slide to 15015-14677. Till 14677 is not violated, we have some hope of a sideways movement in a wider band of 16500-14677. If the level of 14677 is not violated and we consolidate above 14677, then we have some chance of a rise back to 16500. Ultimately, we need a breakout and close above 16500 that can extend the pull back.If the Sensex falls and closes below 14677, then expect a slide down to 14100-14000. The 0.382 level of the fall from 2594 to 21206 is placed at 14097.
The markets displayed intermediate bouts of volatility and choppiness on the back of negative global cues last week. Selling pressure was evident at higher levels as traders and speculators were seen booking profits and also seen creating fresh short positions. The volumes recorded remained lacklustre amidst negative breadth of the market. FIIs remained net sellers in the cash as well as the derivatives segment together with mutual funds, who were net sellers too.Global cues have remained mixed, with the US Federal Reserve Chairman admitting to a slowdown in the US economy and the possibility of a recession looming large. Crude oil prices have softened a bit on the back of an increase in US inventory levels. On the domestic front inflation continues to remain the biggest concern. It has touched 7%, which is a three year high and is potent enough to derail the Indian growth story. The RBI is likely to take some stringent measures, like increasing the CRR, which would lead to a sell-off on Dalal Street. In the meanwhile, follow-up buying continues to remain absent at higher levels, which is a cause for concern. The markets are likely to keep a close watch on the global markets, crude prices and the rupee dollar equation.Intermediate bouts of flare-ups amidst bouts of volatility and selective buying will be witnessed. However, rise in funds flow and increase in volumes is needed if a sustainable rally has to unfold. The results are also likely to impact the market sentiment and positive surprises are needed if the markets have to witness any sort of sustainable rally. Any negative surprises will only act as a trigger for a sell-off on the bourses. The overall trend is likely to remain rangebound with a negative bias.
Technically, on the upside Sensex faces resistance at the 15,699, 16,608 and 17,022 levels but has support at the 15,332 and 14,141 - 13,989 levels. On the upside, the Nifty faces resistance at the 4899, 5025 and 5156 levels while 4482 and 4070 are its important support levels.Investors should avoid long positions.

Conclusion :
Support of 15300-15050-14677 are important and breakout and close above 16500 is required in order to extend the pull-back.
Strategy for the week :
Exit long positions on rise to weekly resistance levels, which will be at 15625-15953-16500

Talk On Roof Tops
* Share price of Sagar Cement has been kept high artificially by operators. Sell immediately as it is one of most overvalued cement company.
* Royal Orchid Hotels has acquired 50% stake in Galaxy Beach Resort, Goa while Panoramic Universal took over Rishi Garden Resort, Karnala near Mumbai. Both are decent picks in the hospitality sector.
* To take advantage of the sharp correction & cheap valuation, promoters of Indo Asian Fusegear are making preferential allotment of 19 lakh warrants to themselves. At a market cap of mere Rs.150 cr., it’s a screaming buy.
* The share price of Flat Products has not fallen much because of the proposed open offer at Rs.517 by a Belgian company. But once the open offer price is downgraded, the scrip will collapse as it seems richly valued in the current market sentiment.
* Projections made by the Hazoor Multiproject are totally unreliable. The company is trying to create a rosy picture through some print media. Stay away from this counter.
* I-flex solutions plans to change its name to Oracle Financial Services, which will add value to the stock as it will be the only Oracle entity listed outside USA. A value stock with good buy-back possibility in future.
* Speciality Papers has announced 1:1 bonus and record date is 16th April 2008. The company has acquired running paper companies and increased the turnover substantially.
* Zicom Electronics security systems has major plans lined up. At the current level of around Rs.125, the stock is a good value buy.
* Khoday India has corrected substantially and can be considered for decent appreciation. The company has shed its conservative approach and has planned for expansion and diversifications.
* Southern Online Bio Technologies will start supplying 3,00,000 litres of biodiesel per month to APSRTC for its 12 depots in Hyderabad & Secunderabad from this quarter, Q1FY09.
* Ennore Coke to start commercial production by the end of this month.
* Investors should exit Jayaswal Neco Industries, as some Rajkot operators could be offloading their stakes.

Market Guidance
* Avaya GlobalConnect (Rs.163) - Book value Rs.149; last dividend 45%; 52-week high/low Rs.414/147. Current year expected EPS is around Rs.20. The stock looks attractive. Buy on dips around Rs.150/155 level.
* First Leasing Company (Rs.42) - Expected EPS for FY08 is around Rs.13 after provisions of deferred tax of around Rs.8 cr. The stock looks attractive around Rs.40 level for safe investment, regular dividend income and good long-term capital growth.13
* Encouraging reports are pouring in about Indus Fila (Rs.123). Keep a watch to add on dips.
* Khoday Industries (Rs.120.95) stock seems to have bottomed out. Hold on it.
* Rajshree Sugar (Rs.54) - Investors can keep a watch to add this stock on dips. It has book value of Rs.45 and 35% dividend payout. There are indications that the sugar sector may do well in coming years in view of better prices.
* Ennore Foundries (Rs.150) - Placement expected at higher levels. Stay invested.
* Kesar Enterprises (Rs.62) - Stay invested or keep a watch to add on reactions with a long-term view. The company has storage division earning good rental income. Sugar sector also expected to turnaround. It is good restructuring story over the long run.
* New developments are said to be taking place in Gujarat Apollo Inds. (Rs.186.75). Stay invested.
* Jaihind Projects (Rs.93) is about to get orders worth of Rs.185 cr. in the very near future as per unconfirmed reports.
* Shree Ram Urban Infrastructure (Rs.171) will also be India’s first residential building aspiring to achieve the prestigious The Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Platinum rating.Spread over 25 lakh sq. ft. at Shree Ram Mills in Lower Parel, the luxury building will have 100 apartments with areas of 8,700 sq. ft. and 14,000 sq. ft. With a floor plate of 5 lakh sq. ft., the premises will have amenities like a cinema house, spa, cricket pitch, soccer field and three swimming pools.Long-term investors are advised to stay invested in this stock.
* J K Paper (Rs.35) is a good dividend yield stock. Last dividend paid was 22.5% and its book value was around Rs.50.
Note: Investors are advised to avoid buying at higher levels; they should buy only on dips very selectively. They should not chase rising stocks in such a sentiment. They should avoid buying stocks, which have gone up by 40/50% from lower levels.

MONEY FOLIO
-> Union Bank launches Union Reverse Mortgage Scheme for senior citizens..
-> National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) will launch futures contract for Certified Emission Reduction (CERs) on 10th April 2008.
-> Dena Bank launches International Gold Debit Card and Internet Banking Services