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Price trading above its medium term average but below its trend line: The Nifty has closed above its medium term moving average (curr value = 5000). However, it continues to trade below its resisting trend line. Technically, from this perspective the Nifty remains in an indecisive trend. The trend line resistance is indicated at 5275.
Momentum turning up: The medium term momentum (RSI) has turned up again. It has also begun to read above its trigger line. This is suggesting that while the trend is exhibiting indecision the undercurrent has turned positive. The bias of the trend is therefore bullish.
Outlook: The short term trend of the Nifty is positive / neutral. Signs of strength are emerging but a close above 5275 in the next week would add to the strength.Looking at the evolving technicals it is difficult to take a clear directional call on the Nifty. But the bias for now, is positive.
Resistance : 5190 / 5230 / 5275 / 5330 / 5380
The options open interest activity remained skewed towards put options with Put call ratio of more than 1.60 indicating supports placed at lower strikes. The basis movement closed at a premium of 10 points. The overall market cost-of-carry ended positive on the back of fall in open interest indicating liquidation of long positions. The global cues will continue to play an influential role, although the major trigger would be the technical movement around the crucial resistance of 5200 mark
If Nifty shows strength above 5165 levels then we may see rally to 5225/5260/5295.
If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5165 levels then decline to 5090/5060/5025/4990 may be seen.
The Defty has moved up in the last two weeks. It has also closed above 3705 which is a positive signal from a medium term perspective. It is likely to consolidate for a while. Major resistance is now expected in the 4000 – 4050 range.
Supports : 3800 / 3650
Resistances : 4000 / 4150
The PSU index remains in a narrow range from a weekly perspective. Despite the recovery in the overall market this sector has remained under pressure. From a medium term perspective the index is still exhibiting weakness. The sideways drift is likely to continue.
Supports : 9000 / 8800
Resistances : 9300 / 9500
The Auto index has moved up firmly and is facing resistance at its high around 7650. This may cause the index to consolidate for some weeks, but the overall direction is bullish. A close below 7250 would be a negative sign in this index.
Supports : 7450 / 7250
Resistances : 7750 / 8000
The Cap Goods index has advanced but the pace is very tardy. It has closed above its medium term average (curr value = 13525). It is in a medium term bullish position but we still recommend caution as momentum is not yet catching up.
Supports : 13600 / 13350
Resistances : 14000 / 14200
BSE IT (5338) up 109 points (+2.1%)
The IT index continued inching up during the week. It remains above its medium term average (currently at 5075). Further recovery in the index looks possible. The next resistance level is now indicated between 5450 - 5500.
Supports : 5150 / 5000
Resistances : 5450 / 5500
BSE Bankex (10341) up 142 points (+1.4%)
The Bankex has moved up firmly after the budget. It retains this direction so far. Further upsides can be expected though the pace may slacken for now.
Supports : 10100 / 10000
Resistances : 10500 / 10800
The stock closed at Rs.77.00 on 12th March 2010. It made a 52-week low at Rs.21.50 on 12th March 2009 and 52-week high of Rs.89.20 on 05th October 2009. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is currently at Rs.124.
Like other reality counters, It witnessed steep decline which resultant more than ninety percent fall from the top in 2008. It formed rounding bottom pattern around the low while consolidating for six months. After the breakout, it doubled in short span but retested the neckline zone of consolidation area again and rebounded thereafter. It has now formed strong base around 60 levels and trading comfortably above the same.
One can accumulate in a range of 72-75 levels with closing below stop loss of 68 levels for the targets of 90-98 levels.
PSL LTD
The stock closed at Rs.156.55 on 12th March 2010. It made a 52-week low at Rs.61.00 on 12th March 2009 and 52-week high of Rs.189.50 on 06th January 2010. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is currently at Rs.192.
Despite reversal in the broader trend, it tried to sustain and declined with lower pace till the later half of 2008 but resumed the overall trend in the end and collapsed quite strongly. Due to the negligible volume in the declining phase, it reversed strongly from the bottom and tested 200 EMA on the weekly chart. It has taken support around 140 levels with noticeable volume and has formed the fresh buying pivot.
One may accumulate between 150-154 levels with closing below stop loss of 144 levels for the targets of 172-180 levels.
RADICO KHAITAN LTD
The stock closed at Rs.120.85 on 12th March 2010. It made a 52-week low at Rs.51.20 on 13th March 2009 and 52-week high of Rs.131.65 on 13th November 2009. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is currently at Rs.102.
After the decline, it tested the bottom zone twice around the 50 levels while the RSI oscillator formed higher highs resultant positive divergence on the weekly chart resultant reversal in trend after the consolidation. Since then, the price chart is forming higher highs and higher lows which is classic pattern of uptrend. It resisted around 130 levels and paused around the same zone while trading
above 200 EMA. Currently, it broke out from the pivot and on the verge of scaling high levels in the near term.
One can accumulate in a range of 115-118 levels with closing below stop loss of 109 levels for the targets of 132-142 levels.
Momentum retains upward bias: The medium / long term momentum (Slow Stochastics) has been rising throughout the sideways consolidation in the stock. It is now perking up and has crossed above its trigger line. It has yet to reach its overbought zone suggesting that upward potential of the stock is undiminished.
Recommendation: The trend of Alsthom Projects as read by its moving averages and momentum indicator is indicating strength from a medium term perspective. A price target of Rs725 looks achievable over the next 2 - 3 months.
BULLISH STRATEGIES
Buy Mar. 165 Ca@ 4.15 & Sell Mar. 170 Ca@ 2.15
Lot size: 3518 / BEP : 167.00
Max. Profit:10554.00(3.00*3518) / Max. Loss: 7036.00(2.00*3518)
Buy. Mar. 300 Ca@ 5.95 & Sell. Mar. 310 Ca@ 2.90
Lot size: 500 / BEP: 303.05
Max. Profit: 3475.00(6.95*500) / Max. Loss:1525.00(3.05*500)
Buy Mar. 280 Ca@ 5.60 & Sell Mar. 290 Ca@ 2.80
Lot size: 1250 / BEP: 282.80
Max. Profit: 9000.00(7.20*1250) / Max. Loss: 3500.00(2.80*1250)
Buy Mar.170 Ca@ 2.10 & Sell Mar.175. Ca@ 0.90
Lot size: 2950 / BEP: 171.20
Max. Profit: 11210.00(3.80*2950) / Max. Loss: 3540.00(1.20*2950)
Buy. Mar. 220 Pa@ 4.60 & Sell. Mar. 210 Pa@ 1.30
Lot size: 1000 / BEP: 216.70
Max. Profit: 6700.00(6.70*1000) / Max. Loss: 3300.00(3.30*1000)
Buy. Mar. 150 Pa@ 3.90 & Sell. Mar. 140 Pa@ 1.50
Lot size: 2500 / BEP: 147.6
Max. Profit: 19000.00(7.60*2500) / Max. Loss: 6000.00(2.40*2500)
Buy. Mar. 1020 Ca@ 19.70 & Buy. Mar. 1020 Pa@ 14.80
Lot size: 300 / Upside BEP: 1054.50 : Downside BEP: 985.50
Max. Profit: Unlimited / Max. Loss: 10350.00(34.50*300)
Buy. Mar. 2050 Ca@ 33.00 & Buy. Mar. 2040 Pa@ 31.00
Lot size: 132 / Upside BEP: 2114.00 : Downside BEP: 1976.00
Max. Profit: Unlimited / Max. Loss: 8448.00(64.00*132)
The price of Crude Oil is now facing resistance at the $82 level. This resistance has yet to be overcome. We prefer a wait & watch stance for now as the trend has turned very dull and appears to be devoid of any momentum.
Supports : 80.5 / 78.25
Resistances : 83 / 84
The price of Silver has advanced to above $17 as we had expected. However, the nature of the move has been quite choppy. The upmove in Silver can develop further to about $18 but the choppy nature of the trend is likely to remain.
Supports :16.50 / 16
Resistances : 17.5 / 18
Aluminium price has risen steadily over the last two weeks and has overcome resistance at $2200. The price is likely to consolidate over the short term. A further rise to $2325 looks possible.
Supports : 2200 / 2125
Resistances : 2250 / 2325
Zinc price has been choppy in the last two weeks. It has also failed to cross its resistance at $2400. It is likely that the trend will remain choppy for the next few sessions. Firm support can be expected at the $2000 level.
Supports : 2300 / 2200
Resistances : 2400 / 2525
The price of Gold has witnessed choppy two way moves, but has generally maintained a positive bias. It continues to hold the potential to advance further to $1150 - 1175 where resistance is likely to develop.
Supports : 1100 / 1050
Resistances : 1130 / 1150
Copper price consolidated near the $7450 and has been steady for the last few sessions. This consolidation can continue for some more sessions. Post this consolidation, the price likely to rise to $7800. The $7200 level can offer firm support.
Supports : 7300 / 7150
Resistances : 7500 / 7650
The USD/INR has drifted downward and has also broken below the support level of 46. We see this is as a sign of weakness which could be sustainable over the medium term. The overall weakness of the trend is getting established. It can decline to 45.
Supports :45.25 / 45.0
Resistances : 45.75 / 46.0
INTRADAY
Buy Around 45.3/45.4,Sl Blw 45.2,Tgt 45.55/65
OR
Sell AROUND 45.55/45.65,Sl Abv 45.75,Tgt 45.40/45.3
The EUR/USD has received firm support in the 1.35 area as we expected. The trend can recover from here to about 1.38 - 1.40. However the medium term trend is turning weak.
Supports : 1.3625 / 1.3500
Resistances : 1.3750 / 1.3875
The DXY has turned sideways over the last two weeks. The upward momentum is beginning to wane. It is possible that a move to 82 can take place, but bullish fatigue is likely to set in at that level as the technicals will have become overbought. A decline below 79 would be a sign of weakness.
Supports : 80.0 / 79.0
Resistances 81.0 / 82.0
The USD/JPY has turned very choppy. We expected two way trends in the Yen and that is playing out. The current move can take the Yen to about 92, but as regards the overall trend, it is best to take a wait and watch stance in such severe volatility.
Supports : 89.0 / 88.0
Resistances : 91.5 / 92.0
Buy Around 62.6,Sl Blw 62.45,Tgt 62.75/62.8
OR
Sell Around 62.9,Sl Abv 63.1,Tgt 62.55/50/45
The Bovespa has inched up further. Though the trend lacks strength in momentum it is maintaining its basic direction as bullish. Resistnace could be encountered around 70,500. Now a move below 67500 would be seen as a sign of weakness.
Supports : 69500 / 69000
Resistances : 70000 / 70500
The SSE has been hovering around its 200 Day EMA since the last few sessions. The short term trend is therefore quite indecisive. The medium term trend remains weak and would be considered as weak as long as the index stays below 3400.
Supports : 3000 / 2950
Resistances : 3075 / 3125
The HS has been moving up steadily and has crossed our resistance level at 21000. It is now likely to advance further though at a slow and steady pace. A move to 22000 looks within reach of the index.
Supports : 21000 / 20600
Resistances : 21350 / 21750
The Nikkei has moved up quite sharply over the last few sessions. However, we expect stiff resistance in the 11050 - 11200 range.
Supports : 10500 / 10000
Resistances : 10825 / 11200
The FTSE has risen steadily over the last week. It has also made a new high in the ongoing uptrend. This is a positive sign. Further upsides looks possible for the index. However, a short consolidation at the current level can be expected.
Supports : 5500 / 5350
Resistances : 5700 / 5900
The EMI has recovered sharply last week. It is now approaching the level of 1000 which can prove to be a short term resistance. We would approach the index with some caution at the present level. The overall trend however, is positive in nature.
Supports : 970 / 950
Resistances : 1000 / 1025
The SP500 held above the level of 1080 and the positive sentiment that was thus maintained has moved the index further upwards. It has also bounced from its 200 Day EMA which is a positive sign from a medium term perspective. The present trend is positive and should gain further ground.
Supports : 1120 / 1080
Resistances : 1175 / 1200
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