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NIFTY (5142.15)
Resistance : 5165 / 5185 / 5240
Support : 5125 / 5105 / 5070
Resistance : 17405 / 17490 / 17530
Support : 17265 / 1718 / 17040
Resistance : 5155 / 5190 / 5235 / 5250
Support : 5130 / 5115 / 5080 / 5055
Resistance: 9655 / 9780 / 9830
Support : 9445 / 9325 / 9115
TATAPOWER@ 1390/1420,Sl 1370,Tgt 1490/1510+
SATYAM@ 113/15,Sl 110,Tgt 120/25+
ICICIBNK@ 950/60,Sl 935,Tgt 985
RELCAP@ 940/45,Sl 920,Tgt 980/1010/1050
LICHSG@ 800/10, Sl 790,Tgt 840/45
M&M@ 940, Sl 910,Tgt 1000
JPASS@ 260,Sl 255,Tgt 265/70
Bartronics had a sharp rally from 53 to 192, which recovered near about 61.80% of the fall from 294 to 47. After the sharp rally, stock started to trade in the range of 141 to 199, which indicates consolidation in Wave B. Bartronics is trading in a channel wherein upper end of the channel is acting as resistances and lower end of the channel as
support. Currently, Stock is trading near lower end of the channel so closes below lower end of channel would indicate further weakness. However, if it holds above Lower end of the channel, it would target upper end of the channel.
We recommend BUY o Bartronics above 187 with a stop loss of 154 on closing basis for the price target of 219, 241 and 273 in short term.
Birla Corp. has formed a good support at Blue Trend Line. As we can see from above chart, stock has rallied from 70 to 326 thereafter it has corrected till 23.60% of the rally (i.e. 265). After forming a Double Bottom at 267 Birla Corp. has started showing some strength. For the Short term, until Birla Corp. sustains above Blue trend line downside looks remote.
We recommend BUY on Birla Corp. above 326 with a stop loss of 311 on closing basis for the price target of 339, 348 and 362 in near term. For Short term or long traders use decline as an opportunity for BUY for the price target of 386, 423 and 484.
In last trading session, Cairn has given a breakout by closing above Red Trend Line, which has proved as a strong resistance in past trading sessions. Multiple times Cairn managed to break above Red Trend line but failed. If it gives a close above Red Trend Line with huge volumes, it’ll indicate bullishness.
We recommend BUY on Cairn
Recent Top (i.e. 200) is accurately marked at 61.80% of the fall. This means stock has fall from 294 to 51 thereafter recovering 61.80% of the fall. Thus 201 will act as major hurdle. After forming a top at 200 Stock has developed Wave B i.e. corrective wave wherein downside can test till 143 (38.20%) or 126 (i.e. 50 % of the rally).
We recommend BUY on Garware offshore above 201 with a stop loss of 164 on closing basis for the price target of 236, 258 and 292 in Short term.
ICSA has fallen from 650 to 47. After forming a bottom at 47 ICSA recovered 28% (i.e. 216) of the fall now, which is acting as a hurdle. As we can see from above chart, ICSA has rallied from 47 to 215 which is marked as Wave A after that Wave B has emerged and corrected nearby 50% of the rally (i.e. 141). ICSA many a times crossed over Red Trend Line but failed to give a close that proved the resistance at Wave A top (i.e. 215) on closing basis.
We recommend to BUY ICSA
IVRCL Infra has fallen from 627 to 57, which is 91% cut from top. After placing a bottom at 57, IVRCL with last trading session recovered 61.80% of the fall (i.e. 409). As per the retracement theory, if IVRCL crosses over 409 then upside can see till 505 (i.e. 78.60%) and 564 (89% of the fall). However, IVRCL has a hurdle at Red Trend Line crossover, which will see further upside.
We recommend BUY on IVRCL Infra on decline with a stop-loss of 340 on closing basis for the target of 461, 492 and 564 in short term.
As we can see from above chart, JP Assoc. has a formed a good support at Blue Trend Line and in last trading session given a break out of by closing above Red Trend Line with decent volume. Thus, two more closings above Red Trend Line will see more upside till 272 to 284. Since JP Assoc. has sustained above 219 (38.20% of fall) it has opened an upside till 50% and 61.80% of fall.
We recommend BUY on Jaiprakash Assoc. with a stop-loss of 239 on closing basis for the target of 265, 273 and 285 in short term. Long-term traders can see upside till 325 and 391 as long as the stock sustain above 219 on closing basis.
Jyoti Structures has formed a Zig-Zag Pattern with higher bottom. In past trading, stock has shown a good support at Blue Trend Line. As we can see from above chart, Jyoti structures has many times taken support at Blue Trend Line and moved till RedTrend Line. Since Jyoti Structures is trading near Blue trend line, upside till Red Trend Line can be seen in coming days.
We recommend BUY in Jyoti Structures with a stop-loss of 122 on closing basis for the target of 177, 194 and 222 in short term.
Techno has fallen from 370 to 51. Thereafter with recent top i.e. 202 Techno has recovered almost 50% of fall. So the rally from 51 to 202 is marked as wave A thereafter stock is under Wave B wherein it has already corrected 38.20% of rally. Any further decline would take the stock towards 50% of rally (i.e. 126). Thus, traders should adopt wait n watch strategy.
As per the retracement theory, upside would develop in Techno only above 211.
As we can see form above chart, Voltamp is oscillating in a channel and forming higher top and higher bottom. With current trading pattern Voltamp has a resistance at 846. Voltamp had fallen from 1910 to 260. Voltamp faces a hurdle at 891 on closing basis, which is 38.20% of fall. Thus, Voltamp closing above 891 will open up higher levels till 1080 to 1280.
We recommend BUY on Voltamp above 846 with a stop-loss of 808 on closing basis for the target of 881, 904 and 940 in near term. For long term trader keep an eye above 948 on closing basis wherein above 948 will see 1110, 1211 and 1373.
GNFC is likely to show an EPS of Rs. 19.7/Share in FY2010. At CMP Rs. 98, it trades at 5 times forward EPS. Given the Govt focus to output in RABI season and demand growth in Chemicals user industries, Investors may BUY in Rs.90-97 range for a target of Rs.120 in mid term.
Valuation
At the current price of 116, the stock is discounting its
Technical Outlook
• The stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern on the weekly chart. The price rise with huge volume during last week’s trade suggests bullishness in the stock • On the weekly chart, it has formed a bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern and closed above the trading range (90-109) of the last two months
• On the lower side, the stock has strong support at Rs 102 levels from the long tern trend line joining the low of March 6 2009 (Rs 24) and June 19 2009 (61.60)
Valuation
We value the company using the SOTP method. Ascribing a value of Rs 393 to the core businesses, Rs 24.2 to Infratel and Rs 37.5 to
Technical Outlook
• The stock is recently being hammered and approaches supports around Rs 325 levels. Weekly charts continue to form higher top and higher bottoms
• The weekly trend line joining the lows of October 31 (241.50) and March 13 2009 (270.55) offer support near Rs 325 where we expect fresh buying interest to emerge
• Despite recent declines, the weekly RSI remains above 40 levels and may support the bullish argument
Valuation
At the CMP of 68, the stock is trading at 0.9x FY11E ABV. The bank is expected to report RoA of close to 1% and RoE in the range of 17-18% in the coming two years. The asset quality of the bank is expected to stay stable. We feel the bank should be re-rated from current levels owing to stable performance in the past few quarters. We, therefore, value the stock at 1.1x FY11E ABV to arrive at a fair value of Rs 86 for the stock.
Technical Outlook
• Dena Bank continues to form higher top and higher bottom on the weekly chart indicating positive intermediate trend
• The stock recently broke out of a longer consolidation pattern above Rs 60 and is forming “Inverse Head and Shoulder” bullish pattern
• Further, 21 and 34 days exponential moving averages (EMA) suggest continuation of an uptrend on the daily charts
Valuation
At the CMP, Dishman is trading at 8.3x its FY10E EPS of Rs 27 and 7.1x FY10E EV/EBITDA. The capex cycle is almost over with Rs 100 crore being planned for FY10E and FY11E. The
Dishman’s revenue and profits to grow 21% and 53%, respectively, through FY10E. We are assigning a target price of Rs 325 on the stock.
Technical Outlook
• The stock after consolidating in the range of 185-220 for the last three months has given a positive breakout with a surge in volumes signalling bullishness in the stock
• It has taken support at 196 levels, which is the 50% retracement level of the recent rally from 158 to 236 levels and has bounced back to form a higher top in the daily chart
• Among oscillators, the RSI is currently at 58 levels and is in buy mode showing positive momentum
Valuation
At the current price of Rs 97, the stock is trading at 9.0x its SY09E EPS of Rs 10.8 and 3.8x its SY10E EPS of Rs 25.2. Given Dhampur’s large inventory holdings and large quantity of raw sugar imports, we believe the company is well set to benefit from rising sugar prices. We value the stock at 5x its SY10E EPS of Rs 25.2 to arrive at a target price of Rs 126.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has broken out of the bullish “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern above Rs 78 levels during early August 2009. Then it rallied up to Rs 108 and now is consolidating for the past six weeks
• Pattern implication gives us targets of Rs 130-140 during an intermediate term
• Although prices pulling back to the breakout area may not be ruled out, it could be seen as a buying opportunity
Valuation
At the current market price of Rs 44, the stock is trading at a P/BV of 2.2x in FY10E and 2.0x in FY11E. We have adopted an SOTP-based methodology by valuing each segment distinctly. Improving visibility of growth for their projects and allaying balance sheet concerns will help them scout for growth opportunities further. Thus, we recommend the
stock with a price target of Rs 54.
Technical Outlook
• The stock continues to form higher top and higher bottom on the weekly charts
• The weekly trend line joining lows of December 31 2008 (10.40) and March 13 2009 (17.60) is likely to lend the support around Rs 40
• The weekly RSI is sustaining above the 50 mark and supports the bullish argument
Valuation
We are revising our earnings estimates and valuation multiples upwards to take in to account the improved economic scenario and exclusion of hotel sector from real estate classification. We value the stock at 12x FY11 EV/EBITDA (earlier 11.5x) and raise our target price to Rs 103 from Rs 77.
Technical Outlook
• The stock resumed a fresh up move after 18 weeks of consolidation and seems poised for a breakout above the Rs-80 mark
• Recent high volume activity along with positive crossover of RSI oscillator on the weekly charts suggest fresh buying interest in the stock
• Break out above Rs 80 would complete the bullish “Cup and Handle” pattern. Such a pattern has a potential of throwing the stock into the higher orbit. The stock may see substantial upsides in the coming months
Valuation
At the CMP of Rs 135, JKL is trading at 3.1x and 4.2x its FY10E and FY11E earnings, respectively. On an EV per tonne basis, it is trading at $48 and $45 at its FY10E and FY11E capacities, respectively.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has formed a rounding bottom formation in the weekly chart and taken support at the 50 days simple moving average (SMA) that is placed at 130 during every correction signalling the uptrend is intact
• The stock is currently trading near the high of April 2008 (Rs 130). Sustaining above this will be positive
• Among oscillators, the MACD is in buy mode and RSI is at 50 levels indicating strength in the current uptrend
Valuation
At the current market price of Rs 210, the stock is trading at P/BV of 2.7x in FY10E and 2.5x in FY11E. We believe a solid outlook to the growth of the sector and additional capacity coming up at a faster pace will lead to a rerating of the stock on the upside. We maintain our price target of Rs 245 over the next 12 months.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has been trading in an upward rising channel for the last few months and is showing signs of bullishness
• The stock is currently trading above the 200 days simple moving average (SMA) that is at 195 levels and can act as a strong support at every downtrend
• The MACD oscillator has given a positive crossover near the base line that supports the positive momentum in the stock
Valuation
Shiv Vani’s current order book of ~Rs 3900 crore to be executed over the next ~2.5 years has improved its visibility, going forward. Traction in execution has also improved the fundamentals of the company. Shiv-Vani has bid for tenders worth Rs ~3,000 crore and it would consider equity dilution for capital expansion if it bags orders for some of the above tenders. The stock is currently trading at 5.5x FY11E EPS of Rs 61.6 and at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.1x FY11E. We have valued Shiv-Vani at 6x FY11E EV/EBITDA with a price target Rs 456.
Technical Outlook
• The stock made a lifetime high of Rs 738 in January 2009 and then faced a sharp decline up to around Rs 100 levels where it made a good base during the early part of 2009. The stock then resumed its upward rally along with good volumes
• It continues to form higher top and higher bottom on the weekly charts indicating a strong intermediate up trend. After consolidation between Rs 330 and Rs 250 levels for about six weeks, recently it broke above the Rs 330 mark. Pattern implication suggests fresh targets up to Rs 450 and Rs 486
• Momentum oscillators such as 14 period RSI remain in buy mode and support the bullish argument
Valuation
At the CMP of Rs 132, the stock is trading at 1x and 0.9x its FY10E and FY11E ABV, respectively. We believe that with such business credential and consistency in generating reasonable return ratios, the stock deserves a higher investment multiple vis-à-vis its peers. We are assigning a target of Rs 172 (1.2x FY11E ABV) to the stock representing a
30% upside over twelve months.
Technical Outlook
• On the daily chart the stock continues its up trend, with higher top and higher bottom formation. Also, the 50 day simple moving average (SMA) at 118.50 continues to act as a strong support
• The stock has taken support at Rs 108, which is the 38.2% retracement level of the last rally from 84 to 124
• Among momentum oscillators, the RSI and stochastic has given a positive cross over and is signalling strength and positive momentum in the coming week
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