Markets Weekly For 05/10/2009 To 10/10/2009

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WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

WEEK GONE BY
Nifty traded strong in the truncated week with indecisive move only on last trading day. Weekly low was 4959.10, weekly high was 5110.50

WEEK AHEAD
Upward momentum intact, but short term momentum indicators overbought. Small pullback and retest of strong support trendline not ruled out. Up-move is intact till uptrend support line holds. Longs should be added only in dips, upmove can be used to book profits in short term trades.

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-

1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 1.15%, NIFTY OCT FUT closed up 2.07% last week. NIFTY FUT turned to discount of 13 points from 8 points premium compare to NIFTY SPOT.

2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 23 Stock FUTS closed positive, 11 Stock FUTs closed negative and 16 Stock FUTs close flat last week.

3) OI of current series NIFTY 4900 CE is down 6.76% prices up 28.14% and NIFTY 5000 CE is down 2.35% prices up 30.73% showing profit booking. OI of current series NIFTY 5100 CE is up 23.54% prices up 32.83%, NIFTY 5200 CE is up 12.67% prices up 29.93% and NIFTY 5300 CE is up 15.06% prices up 23.05% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 5300 CE is 36.58 LK highest OI in CALLLs.

4) OI of current series NIFTY 4900 PE is up 34.12% prices down 41.28% and NIFTY 5000 PE is up 98.59% prices down 37.43% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 4900 PE is 58.20 LK highest OI in PUTs.

5) Total OI of OCTO series CALLs is up by 20.24 LK to 1.99 CR, OCTO series PUTs is up by 64.30 LK to 3.13 CR. NIFTY OCTO series PCR (OI) at 1.57 up by 18 points.

NIFTY (5083.4)

Resistance : 5090 / 5140 / 5180 / 5205 / 5265

Support : 5050 / 4990 / 4950 / 4900 / 4865 / 4780

SENSEX (17134.55)

Resistance : 17195 / 17285 / 17330 / 17440 / 17800

Support : 17045 / 16890 / 16650 / 16320 / 15900

NIFTY FUT (5069.85)

Resistance : 5115 / 5155 / 5210 / 5285

Support : 5045 / 5005 / 4940 / 4870 / 4800 / 4755

BANK NIFTY (8820.45)

Resistance : 8980 / 9135 / 9285 / 9545

Support : 8720 / 8565 / 8305 / 8225 / 8100 / 8010

CRUDE : Trading Range : 3305 – 3415

Support@ 3280 / 3230

Resistance : 3425 / 3475

COPPER : Range : 283 – 293 : Correction Possible Upto 283/278 Levels

Support@ 275 / 272

Resistance : 293 / 296

SILVER

Support@ 25780 / 25520 / ( Below It ) / 25150 / 24900

Resisstance : 26430 / 26550

SECTOR WATCH : REALITY (UPMOVE)

DLF FUT : OI up 19.50% prices up 3.11% last week. Key R 462, 468. S 408, 394.

HDIL FUT : OI up 15.65% prices up 3.34% last week. Key R 350, 356. S 310, 294.

IBREALEST FUT : OI flat prices flat last week. Key R 285, 288. S 260, 253.

UNITECH FUT : OI up 28.29% prices down 3.32% last week. Key R 115, 122. S 102, 97.

HDIL FUT, DLF FUT looks strong. UNITECH FUT market performer.

STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK : ULTRACEMCO FUT

ULTRACEMCO FUT showing strong move in last week trade. Total OI up 92.14%, prices up 13.32% last week. Above 876 levels, fresh up move expected.

BUY (Delivery)

ANSALPROP@ 80/85,Sl 75,Tgt 90/95/100

PARSVNATH@ 140,Sl 130,Tgt 155/60/65/70+

EDSERVE@ 130,Sl 125,Tgt 140/45/50

IDFC@ 145/50,Sl 140,Tgt 155/60/65

JPASS Abv 235,Sl 225,Tgt 250/65/75+

CASTROL@ 490,Sl 480

ELECON Abv 95,Sl 90

KSERASERA@ 15/16

Conclusion :-

I expect NIFTY to trade rangebound with volatility next week. NIFTY SPOT Support@ 4990-5000, 4950-60 levels, below 4940, Strong Support@ 4890-4900 levels.

Bounce expected from these levels. Any up move will face Resistance@ 5090-5100, 5170-80. Hedge All Longs (Lighten Positions) below 4890/4870. Fresh up move possible only above 5190 levels.