Markets Weekly For 03/08/2009 To 08/08/2009

After the initial set back of a highly choppy range bound week which ended on a positive note, with good corporate results and, assistance by some good global cues. Now all experts are optimistic that the Nifty could touch new highs in the coming days.

This week's performance was better than expected the BSE Sensex was up 2.2% and NSE Nifty up 2%. BSE Small cap index was up 2.7% and CNX Midcap index up 3.2% over the week. BSE Metal index was up 2.3%, BSE IT index up 5%, BSE CD index down 0.5% and BSE Auto index up 2.9%.

Friday after the FNO expiry on Thursday was a cheerful last trading day for the week & also for the month of July which saw the Sensex touch the highest levels for the year 2009 and in Nifty Fut. the intraday High was touched at 4679 merely 24 points less from the previous high of 2009.

The session on Friday was dominated by large cap stocks and marked by some volatility towards the afternoon. Sensex shut shop at 15670, up 282 points and Nifty at 4636, up 65 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 1.2% and BSE Small cap index was up 0.03%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 683 against declines of 571 on the NSE.

The Top Nifty gainers included Hindalco, Tata Motors and Nalco while losers included Bharti Airtel, Jindal Steel & Power and BPCL.

With global cues positive and no major bad news we expect NIFTY FUT to rise upside with mild corrections of profit bookings. Major movement is expected in stock specific only so one shall consider the stock specific approach for day trading.

NIFTY (4635.45)

Resistance : 4680 / 4730 / 4780 / 4825 / 4870

Support : 4585 / 4525 / 4480 / 4435 / 4370 / 4325

SENSEX (15670.31)

Resistance : 15800 / 15885 / 16125 / 16450

Support : 15460 / 15380 / 15065 / 14785

NIFTY FUT (4636.05)

Resistance : 4685 / 4750 / 4810 / 4860

Support : 4610 / 4550 / 4470 / 4415 / 4360

NIFTY Have To Close Above 4770/4810 For Few Sessions To Test 5100/5200/5500+ Levels.

DOW Also Trading Near Its Short Term Resistance Band Of 9250/9350,If Not Broken We May See A Sharp Reversal In All Global Markets.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

SECTOR WATCH : POWER (Bullish)

Last weeks trade showing positive build up in power and power related stocks. Total OI of POWERGRID FUT down 26.95% prices up 4.05%, PTC FUT down 43.20%

prices up 7.47%, RECLTD FUT down 4.10% prices up 15.63%, RELINFRA FUT down 18.15% prices up 2.94% and TATAPOWER FUT up 50.56%prices up 10.47% last week.

OI down due to expiry. We expect positive move in coming week.

STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK : IVRCLINFRA FUT (Bullish)

Total OI of IVRCLINFRA FUT up 58.43% prices flat last week. IVRCLINFRA (AUG) FUT Intraday high 375.00, Intraday low 300.15 last week.

We expect up move in coming week.

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-

1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 14.45%, NIFTY FUT closed up 1.32% last week. OI down due to expiry.

2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 29 Stock FUTS closed positive, 15 Stock FUTs closed negative and 6 Stock FUTs close flat last week.

3) OI of current series NIFTY 4700 CE is up 98.49% prices up 2.96%, NIFTY 4800 CE is 226.37% prices down 1.12% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 4700 CE is 31.78 Lakhs Highest OI in Calls.

4) OI of current series NIFTY 4400 PE is up 94.67% prices down 31.16% and NIFTY 4500 PE is up 95.99% prices down 27.51% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 4000 PE is 22.06 LK highest OI in Puts.

5) Total OI of AUG series CALLs is up by 65.20 LK to 1.38 CR, AUG series PUTs is up by 79.16 LK to 1.56 CR. NIFTY AUG series PCR (OI) at 1.13.

Conclusion :-

Expect NIFTY SPOT will show up move followed by profit booking at higher levels next week.

NIFTY Resistance Zone 4700-4720, Above 4730, Next Strong Resistance 4780-4815. Profit booking expected above 4800 levels.

On down side, NIFTY SPOT Support 4525-35, 4490-4500 levels. Below 4480, Next Support 4435-45 levels.

BUY (Weekly - Positional)

M&M, Sl 830,Tgt 890/925/950 (Monthly Target Of 950/1100/1350+)

HEROHONDA, Sl 1550,Tgt 1690/1730/1765/1795 (Monthly Tgt Of 1850/1950+)

OBC Above 170,Sl 160,Tgt 180/85/90/95

BHARTISHIP Above 155,Sl 140,Tgt 165/75/85

GLENMARK Above 250,Sl 235,Tgt 265/75/85