Markets Weekly For 29/6/09 To 04/7/09

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-

1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 35.61%, NIFTY FUT closed up 1.40% last week. OI down due to expiry. But OI down more this time compare to previous expiry showing new series began lite. Total OI at 2.19 CR, compare to 2.87 CR in previous series.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 23 Stock FUTS closed positive, 14 Stock FUTS closed negative and 13 Stock FUTs close flat last week.
3) Total OI of NIFTY 4200 CE is up 3235% prices down 4%, NIFTY 4300 CE is up 784% prices down 8% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 4700 CE is up 364% prices down 25% last week showing call writing. OI of NIFTY 4700CE is 19.27 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of NIFTY 3800 PE is up 903% prices down 53%, NIFTY 3900 PE is up 268% prices down 49%, NIFTY 4000 PE is up 168% prices down 44% and NIFTY 4200 PE is up 239% prices down 35% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 4200 PE is 22.85 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of JULY series CALLs is up by 88.70 LK to 1.32 CR. JULY series PUTs is up by 86.76 LK to 1.43 CR last week. JULY series PCR (OI) at 1.08.

Conclusion :-
I Expect NIFTY SPOT to trade rangebound with volatility next week. Any up move will face R 4500-4510, 4530-40 levels. Above 4550 levels, next target will be 4580-90 level which looks difficult. Failed to sustain above 4550 level means BULL will prefer to book profit. I expect fresh shorts should be initiated above 4500 levels. I expect down move from 4515-4545 zone for target 4270-80, 4240-50 next week.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

SECTOR WATCH
SECTOR : CAPITAL GOODS
Trend : Bullish
Total OI of ABB FUT down 23.94% prices up 6.60%, BHEL FUT down 33.60% prices up 5.38%, LT FUT up 2.04% prices up 7.53% and SIEMENS FUT down 36.24% prices up 6.32% last week. OI down due to expiry. All stocks outperformed last week. We expect positive move in CAPITAL GOODS STOCK FUTs next week.

STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
FSL FUT
Trend : Bullish
Total OI of FSL FUT up 56।40% prices up 7.87% last week. Intraday high 26.40, Intraday low 22.75 last week. We expect positive move above 26.50 levels next week.

Weekly Trend (29-06-2009 to 04-07-2009)

NIFTY (4376) : 4385 & 4460 Will Be Important Resistance. Keep 4200-4180 As Supports (Stoploss) For All Longs

Resistance : 4430-40 / 4505 / 4545 / 4625 / 4775

Support : 4305 / 4270 / 4235 / 4195 / 4150 / 4085

SENSEX (14765) : Keep 13990 As Stoploss For All Longs

Resistance : 14960 / 15020 / 15165 / 15230 / 15460 / 15550

Support : 14630 / 14565 / 14390 / 14160 / 13990 / १३८४०

STOCKS To Watch To BUY

UNITECH : Range Of 77-80,Sl 72,Tgt 90/95/100/105

HOTELLELLA : Range 31-33,Sl 29,Tgt 40/45/47/50

SKUMARN : Range : 43-45,Sl 41,Tgt 50/55/60

KSOIL : Range :58/61,Sl 55,Tgt 65/68/70/75

IDBI :Range 104-08,Sl 101,Tgt 111/15/20/25

TELCO : 335-45,Sl 330,Tgt 350/60/70/80

RPOWER : 172/77,Sl 167,Tgt 182/85/90/93/95

MRPL : 82-85,Sl 79,Tgt 90/95/100/05

RELCAP : 905/25,Sl 885,Tgt 960/80/95/1005

RCOM : 295-305,Sl 285,Tgt 315/25/35

DREDGING : 480-90,Sl 460,Tgt 550/600/50/700

LGBROS : 14-15,Sl 12,Tgt 18/20/23

SURYAPHARMA : 99/101,Sl 95,Tgt 110/115/20/25

KFA : 50-53,Sl 47,Tgt 57/60/65

ANULABS : 26/28,Sl 24,Tgt 35/38/41/43

EXIDEIND : 65/67,Sl 62,Tgt 75/80

RNRL : 90/95,Sl 85,Tgt 100/05

HARRISON (500467) : 76/79,Sl 73,Tgt 85/90/95/100