Markets For 01/07/2009

Daily Market Outlook: 01 July 2009

It was a difficult day for the market that struggled and closed weak despite positive global cues and ended weak. Investors booked profits ahead of next Monday’s Union budget. Market breadth on BSE remained negative with 1829 declines against 769 advances. Nifty ended at 4300.85, down 90.10 points or 2.05 per cent. Sensex closed at 14524.22, down 261.52 points or 1.77 per cent. All BSE indices were in the red. However, the Sensex posted its highest quarterly gain in 17 years on signs of an economic recovery on last day of June quarter. Top Nifty gainers included Hero Honda, TCS and BPCL while losers were Suzlon, DLF and Tata Motors.

NIFTY (4291.1)

Resistance : 4355 / 4390 / 4440

Support : 4240 / 4210 / 4170

SENSEX (14494)

Resistance : 14795 / 14925 / 15095

Support : 14305 / 14200 / 14120

NIFTY FUT (4290) : NIFTY Close Below 4230 ( 39 Day Moving Average), Is Very Weak Sign & Opens Gap For 4040 / 3930

Resistance : 4400 / 4460 / 4510

Support : 4270 / 4245 / 4220 / 4180 / ४१५०

On Wednesday,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 4305,Sl Below 4325,Tgt 4270/45/20/4180

Sustain Above 4325,Buy with Sl Below 4305,Tgt 4355/75/90/4425

Close All SHORTS At 4220,Since MININIFTY Made An Incorrect Low Of 4220 On 30/06/2009

Huge Risk Traders : Buy NIFTY@ 4220,Sl 4180,Tgt 4280/4325/4355/4390/4440 (Positional)

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 3.15% with 32% increasing volumes indicating not only unwinding of long position plus forming of shorts too.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

BUY

GAIL Above 290,Sl 290

GTOFFSHORE Above 430,Sl 420,Tgt 435/40/45

NAGARCOSNT Above 125,Sl 120,Tgt 130/40/45

BIRLACORP Above 205,Sl 200,Tgt 210/15/20

MARUTI Above 1070,Sl 1060,Tgt 1085/95/1110+

VSNL Above 475,Sl 470,Tgt 485/95/500

SELL

SBIN (1745),Sl Abv 1760,Tgt 1730/20

BHEL Below 2205,Sl 2225,Tgt 2165/25/05+

GAIL Below 290,Sl 295,Tgt 280/75/70

HDFCBNK Below 1490,Sl 1510,Tgt 1475/50/25/05+

Markets Weekly For 29/6/09 To 04/7/09

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-

1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 35.61%, NIFTY FUT closed up 1.40% last week. OI down due to expiry. But OI down more this time compare to previous expiry showing new series began lite. Total OI at 2.19 CR, compare to 2.87 CR in previous series.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 23 Stock FUTS closed positive, 14 Stock FUTS closed negative and 13 Stock FUTs close flat last week.
3) Total OI of NIFTY 4200 CE is up 3235% prices down 4%, NIFTY 4300 CE is up 784% prices down 8% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 4700 CE is up 364% prices down 25% last week showing call writing. OI of NIFTY 4700CE is 19.27 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of NIFTY 3800 PE is up 903% prices down 53%, NIFTY 3900 PE is up 268% prices down 49%, NIFTY 4000 PE is up 168% prices down 44% and NIFTY 4200 PE is up 239% prices down 35% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 4200 PE is 22.85 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of JULY series CALLs is up by 88.70 LK to 1.32 CR. JULY series PUTs is up by 86.76 LK to 1.43 CR last week. JULY series PCR (OI) at 1.08.

Conclusion :-
I Expect NIFTY SPOT to trade rangebound with volatility next week. Any up move will face R 4500-4510, 4530-40 levels. Above 4550 levels, next target will be 4580-90 level which looks difficult. Failed to sustain above 4550 level means BULL will prefer to book profit. I expect fresh shorts should be initiated above 4500 levels. I expect down move from 4515-4545 zone for target 4270-80, 4240-50 next week.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

SECTOR WATCH
SECTOR : CAPITAL GOODS
Trend : Bullish
Total OI of ABB FUT down 23.94% prices up 6.60%, BHEL FUT down 33.60% prices up 5.38%, LT FUT up 2.04% prices up 7.53% and SIEMENS FUT down 36.24% prices up 6.32% last week. OI down due to expiry. All stocks outperformed last week. We expect positive move in CAPITAL GOODS STOCK FUTs next week.

STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
FSL FUT
Trend : Bullish
Total OI of FSL FUT up 56।40% prices up 7.87% last week. Intraday high 26.40, Intraday low 22.75 last week. We expect positive move above 26.50 levels next week.

Weekly Trend (29-06-2009 to 04-07-2009)

NIFTY (4376) : 4385 & 4460 Will Be Important Resistance. Keep 4200-4180 As Supports (Stoploss) For All Longs

Resistance : 4430-40 / 4505 / 4545 / 4625 / 4775

Support : 4305 / 4270 / 4235 / 4195 / 4150 / 4085

SENSEX (14765) : Keep 13990 As Stoploss For All Longs

Resistance : 14960 / 15020 / 15165 / 15230 / 15460 / 15550

Support : 14630 / 14565 / 14390 / 14160 / 13990 / १३८४०

STOCKS To Watch To BUY

UNITECH : Range Of 77-80,Sl 72,Tgt 90/95/100/105

HOTELLELLA : Range 31-33,Sl 29,Tgt 40/45/47/50

SKUMARN : Range : 43-45,Sl 41,Tgt 50/55/60

KSOIL : Range :58/61,Sl 55,Tgt 65/68/70/75

IDBI :Range 104-08,Sl 101,Tgt 111/15/20/25

TELCO : 335-45,Sl 330,Tgt 350/60/70/80

RPOWER : 172/77,Sl 167,Tgt 182/85/90/93/95

MRPL : 82-85,Sl 79,Tgt 90/95/100/05

RELCAP : 905/25,Sl 885,Tgt 960/80/95/1005

RCOM : 295-305,Sl 285,Tgt 315/25/35

DREDGING : 480-90,Sl 460,Tgt 550/600/50/700

LGBROS : 14-15,Sl 12,Tgt 18/20/23

SURYAPHARMA : 99/101,Sl 95,Tgt 110/115/20/25

KFA : 50-53,Sl 47,Tgt 57/60/65

ANULABS : 26/28,Sl 24,Tgt 35/38/41/43

EXIDEIND : 65/67,Sl 62,Tgt 75/80

RNRL : 90/95,Sl 85,Tgt 100/05

HARRISON (500467) : 76/79,Sl 73,Tgt 85/90/95/100

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Markets For 26/06/2009

Nifty was higher at the opening bell. In the initial trading hours, it remained range-bound amid very high volatility. However after breaking 4300, it witnessed a sharp sell off in all the counters. The index finally ended the session 51 points down at 4242. July series witnessed pretty decent rollover, whereas Nifty witnessed poor rollover. July series started the month with 21,208 crore in stock future and 9,032 crore in Nifty future. We expect market to remain pretty volatile on account of big event (Union Budget) in the first week of July and Nifty may remain in a broad range of 4000 to 4500 in the coming days.

NIFTY (4241.85)

Support : 4225 / 4190 / 4150 / 4120

Resistance : 4280 / 4325 /4360/4385

SENSEX (14346)

Support : 14235

Resistance: 14620 / 14810

NIFTY FUT (4305)

Support : 4245 / 4180

Resistance : 4345 / 4380

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 45.61% with 102% increasing volumes indicating forming of long positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive.

BUY POSITIONALLY + INTRA

ORBIT(532837),Sl 150,Tgt 160/65/70/75

JPHYDRO Above 95,Sl 90,Tgt 100/105

TATACOMM Above 460,Sl 445,Tgt 480/500/520

STAR Above 145,Sl 140,Tgt 150/55/60

TTML Above 39,Sl 37

UNITDPHOS Above 150,Sl 140

LAXMIMACH Above 970,Sl 950

LNT Above 1530/40,Sl 1490

BUY (Intraday)

BAJAJHIND Above 205/10,Sl 200

VOLTAS Above 125,Sl 120,Tgt 135/37/40

BAJAJAUTO Above 980,Sl 970,Tgt 995/1010/20/30+

BIOCON Above 230,Sl 215,Tgt 240/50/60/70

MOSERBAER Above 95,Sl 90,Tgt 100/05/10

SELL (Intraday)

RELCAP Below 895,Sl 905,Tgt 875/50/20

MARUTI Below 1025,Sl 1040,Tgt 1000/980/60+

LICHSG Below 630,Sl 645,Tgt 620/05/590/80

FUTURES

Buy BIOCON Above 226,Sl 224,Tgt 228/29/30/32.5/34.8/38/39+++ (Lot Size : 1800)

Sell STERLINBIO Below 114,Sl 117,Tgt 112/111.6/110.4/109/108/107/105.8++ (Lot Size : 1250)

Markets For 17/06/2009

Daily Market Outlook: 17 June 2009

It started as a bad day for the global equity markets and India was no exception. In the morning Sensex opened gap down and immediately touched a low of 14621.97 showing a decline of more than 250 points. With global equity markets trading in red it was quite obvious. But despite the global weakness the Sensex managed to recover and closed in green. The scrips from Banking, PSU and Power sector lifted the Sensex in the positive zone. Surprisingly the madcap and small cap indices again outperformed the Sensex. While Sensex closed at 14957.91 Up 82.39 points, Nifty closed at 4517.80 up 33.80 points. Market breadth was positive with 1642 advances and 1007 declines.

NIFTY (4517.8)

Resistance : 4565 / 4595 / 4620

Support : 4485 / 4450 / 4435 / 4380

SENSEX (14957.91)

Resistance : 15115 / 15270

Support : 14840 / 14715 / 14650 / 14465

NIFTY FUT (4529)

Resistance : 4575 / 4620

Support : 4455 / 4385

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 3.90% with 9% decreasing volumes indicating forming of long positions.

We expect positive move with volatility at higher levels.

On Wednesday,Opening Is Flat To Up,

Buy NIFTY Above 4550/60,Sl 4530,Tgt 4585/4605/20

Sell NIFTY Below 4530/20,Sl 4550,Tgt 4490/50/20

SBIN (1714) [Delivery : Buy with Sl 1690,Tgt 1745/65+]

Buy Above 1755,Sl 1745,Tgt 1775/95

Sell Below 1695,Sl 1705,Tgt 1675/1655

RELIANCE [Risk Lovers : Sell Below 2140,Sl 2165,Tgt 2125/15/2085/2075+ ]

Buy Above 2165,Sl 2155,Tgt 2185/2205

Sell Below 2125,Sl 2135,Tgt 2105/2080

BUY (Delivery)

SATYAM,Sl 70,Tgt 90/100/110+

JPHYDRO Above 90/95,Sl 85,Tgt 100/105/110

GTOFFSHORE,Sl 385

MRPL Above 95,Sl 85

IDBI Above 110,Sl 105

GUJALKALI Above 115,Sl 105

INDUSINDBNK Above 80,Sl 75

BUY

CAIRN,Sl 230,Tgt 255/65/70

BHARATFORGE Above 175,Sl 170,Tgt 180/85/90+

COLGATE Above 565,Sl 555,Tgt 580/90/610

MASTEK Above 240,Sl 230,Tgt 250/55/60

NALCO Above 370,Sl 365,Tgt 375/80/85

WIPRO Above 400,Sl 390,Tgt 410/15/20

POWERGRID Above 120,Sl 115,Tgt 125/30/35+

ZEENEWS Above 43.5,Sl 42.5,Tgt 45.5/46.5/47.5+

BERGERPAINTS Above 44,Sl 42.4,Tgt 46/47/48+

SELL

UNIONBNK Below 225,Sl 230,Tgt 220/15/10

JETAIRWAYS Below 260,Sl 270,Tgt 255/45/35/30

FUTURES

Buy CHENNAIPETRO Above 189,Sl 186,Tgt 191/92.5/94.3/95.6/97.4/99.8/201/03 (Lot Size : 3600)

Buy BHEL@ 2115/35,Sl 2105,Tgt 2175/95/2210/15 (Hold Longs,If Closes Above 2200)

Buy INFY Above 1710,Sl 1680,Tgt 1740/50/60 (Close Above 1750,Hold Longs)

Sell RIL@ 2205/2185,Sl 2225,Tgt 2140/20/05

Sell RPL Below 135,Sl 139,Tgt 133.3/132.4/131.4/129.7/28/26/25/24/22 (Lot Size : 3350)

Markets For 15/6/2009

NIFTY (4583.4)

Resistance : 4615 / 4665 / 4725 / 4745

Support : 4550 / 4535 / 4485 / 4455 / 4425

SENSEX (15237.94)

Resistance : 15340 / 15395 / 15480 / 15560 / 15765

Support : 15200 / 15130 / 15075 / 14975 / 14910 / 14825 / 14745

NIFTY FUT (4588.85)

Resistance : 4620 /4650 / 4675 / 4730 / 4755

Support : 4570 / 4535 / 4485 / 4450

BANK NIFTY (7060.95)

Resistance : 7140 / 7250 / 7425

Support : 6955 / 6850

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI flat with 29% increasing volumes. Unwinding of long positions plus forming of fresh short positions too.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

On Monday,Opening Is Flat To Weak,

Buy NIFTY Above 4620/30,Sl 4600,Tgt 4670/4700+

Sell NIFTY Below 4580/70,Sl 4600,Tgt 4540/4510+

BANKNIFTY

Buy Above 7130,Sl 7100,Tgt 7170/7240

Sell Below 7070,Sl 7100,Tgt 7030/6965/6850

RELIANCE

Buy Above 2370,Sl 2365,Tgt 2405/2435

Sell Below 2345,Sl 2355,Tgt 2310/2290

SBIN

Buy Above 1660,Sl 1650,Tgt 1690/1710

Sell Below 1630,Sl 1640,Tgt 1610/1590

Accumulate Stocks In Weak Market Sentiments (Delivery)

MOSERBAER,Sl 95,Tgt 115+

GVKPOWER,Sl 40,Tgt 55+

SATYAMCOMP,Sl 65,Tgt 100/10+

GMRINFRA Above 160,Sl 150

UNIONBANK Above 230,Sl 220

IDFC , RIIL , INDIACEM

BUY

NAGARCON Above 135,Sl 130,Tgt 140/43/45

TATACOMM Above 530,Sl 520,Tgt 545/55/60

RANBAXY Above 285,Sl 280,Tgt 295/305/15

ICICIBNK Above 740,Sl 735,Tgt 755/65/75

CAIRN Above 245,Sl 240,Tgt 260/65/75/85/95+ (Positional)

CIPLA Above 255,Sl 245,Tgt 260/65

ONGC Above 1135,Sl 1120,Tgt 1150/60

GMRINFRA Above 165,Sl 160,Tgt 170/75

RPL Above 145,Sl 140,Tgt 150/55/60

UNIONBNK Above 235,Sl 230,Tgt 240/45/50

SELL

TECHM Below 715,SL 725,Tgt 700/690

DLF Below 365,Sl 370,Tgt 360/55/50

RANBAXY Below 280,Sl 285,Tgt 270/65

AXISBNK Below 700,Sl 710,Tgt 690/85

RELCAPITAL Below 965,Sl 975,Tgt 945/35

RELINFRA Below 1170,Sl 1185,Tgt 1150/40

ROLTA Around 140/35,Sl 145

Buy IBREAL Fut Above 225,Sl 222,Tgt 227.8 / 29 / 31/33/35.7 / 38 / 40/43/48 (Lot Size : 2600)

Sell MTNL Fut Below 110,Sl 113,Tgt 109.5 /108.9/108.3 / 107/06/05.6 / 104/03/02 (Lot Size : 3200)

GOLD : Sell Below 14515,Sl 14600,Tgt 14385/290

SILVER : Sell Below 23500,Sl 23610,Tgt 23095/860