Markets Weekly From 10/11/08 To 15/11/08 (Intra)

WEEKLY REPORT CARD
(10th November to 15th November 2008)

NIFTY

Support : 2960/2920/2855/2820/2795/2640/2600/2525
Resistance : 2975/3035/3110/3145/3180/3230/3290/3350/3450

SENSEX

Support : 9630/9400/9270/8900/8860/8620/8560/7420/6800

Resisistance : 9700/9900/10150/10250/10380/10520/10750/11580/11750

This short this bear market rally will end anywhere between 3350-3450. Next comes the target 2025 in Nifty. Prepare yourself for the worst.

THINGS TO WATCH OUT FOR THE WEEK IS IIP DATA THAT WILL BE ANNOUNCED ON 12TH NOVEMBER 2008 FOR THE SEPTEMBER MONTH.Market will be guided by foreign and local cues next week

THE HIGHT OF POSSIBILITIES

Sensexl touched 19013 which was on 18/01/2008
Nifty fut touched 5730 which was on 18/01/2008
Mcx gold touched 8738 which was on 04/08/2008
Us dollar touched 43.25 which was on 16/08/2008

In my last weekly report card I have told that don’t try to find out the bottom of the market as there is pessimisms in market and also told u all not to sell your holding at this cheap levels and told u to start investing vary aggressively.

When market breaks 2500 most player start believing it will hit 2000 and there after 1600 some foreign analyst had also told the same and what happen after 2228? It flares to 3298 in just seven trading sessions with four days gap up opening and all players caught sleepy. When nifty comes to 2240 our fii insiders told that buy nifty and rest is history .we have also told to our paid member that Indian market will bottom out either on 28th or 31st of the oct and it did that is our astro power. When sensex was making high we were sending message of 11192 and now we are saying sensex will hit 19013.

In the last meeting with Fii research and brokerages house they told us that in the 2-3 years time we will get nearly $41 billion for long term investments. They also told that they are also visiting the leading institutions of China and Japans to make investments in India .So jago India jago

DERAVATIVES ANALYSIS-

Nifty put call ratio is at 1.01 % which is fairy stand out not in over bought or oversold zone. While on call side we have seen vary good open intrest at 3200 and 3400 call options while on the other hand fii net sold 990 crores nifty fu in market so lets see what happen to market one things we would like to says be alerted and cautious this rally will be trapping rally.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS-

NIFTY FU-market is rising with low volume. Apart from this factor index has formed piercing line on weekly charts –in down trend if index or stock makes piercing line it often tends to reversal which means bullish ness in market it is often find out when this kind of formation formed with low volume it becomes invalid and the same case is current I am bit of confuse with the validation of pattern so be cautious in rally .we have seen huge open intrest build up in 3200-3400 call options and on the other side FII sold nifty worth of 990 crores and volatility index is stand at 67.22% this indicates the volatility on the coming days .

Brooder range of the index will be 2600 to 3200 as long as the bulls keeps index above 3200 they will win on the other side below 2600 bears will win.

On the upper side resistance at 3048-3153-3200 close above 3200 will take to 3438.

While on the down side support at 2891 below that it will down to 2747 which is good support to bounce to again 3000 levels .if bears control the market then it will fall to 2638-2572.

SENSEX-brooder range will be anywhere between 8500 to 11500.

On the upside it will face resistance at 10185-10708 closing above with volume will take to 11410 to fill the gap and again it will be hammer.
While on the downside support at 9708 and below 9297 is great support and possible pull back to 10000 if it does not happen then will fall to 8936-8739.

COMMODITIES-

International gold-gold has formed symmetrical triangle formation and the height of the triangle is $54 our down side target is 626.
On the mcx as long as it trades below 12300 it will continue to fall and we may see trading below 11000.
As per our insiders after equity, crude and base metal now hedge funds will pull out their money from gold and also 27 central banks will sell their gold to raise money. Our special technical analysis theory suggests 8738 levels on down side.

SELL GOLD AT 740$-750$ SL 775 TGT 715$ & More.

ALL THE POSTION IN SILVER CRUDE GOLD AND SILVER BOOK ON MONDAY...
FROM MONDAY AGIAN DOWNTREND CAN START SO BE CAUTIOS....

GLOBAL MARKET-

Dow Jones-index has formed triangle worth 1912 points.closeing below 8500 last hope at 8245 below this levels this pattern will be valid and index will fall to 6333 and even to 5970.

CURRENCY ANALYSIS-

Before four –fives days we told u all to sell dollar and buy rupees future. Our target for dollar is 43++ it will not come by today or tomorrow just wait n watch.

FOREX- Ruppee will gain strength in coming days,and we can see it getting strong. We can see levels of 43-45-42

Observation:-

NIFTY FUT Total OI up 9.98%, NIFTY FUT up 3.61%, last week showing long positions build up.
Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 30 Stock FUTS closed positive, 15 Stock FUTS closed negative and 5 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
OI of NIFTY 3000 CE, 3100 CE 3200 CE and 3300 CE is up with rising prices showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 3400 CE showed highest rise last week, showing not only short covering plus hedgeing by call writers.
OI of NIFTY 2500 PE, 2800 PE and 2900 PE is up with falling prices showing put writing.
FII OI in INDEX FUT is up by 95279 contracts to 612985 contracts showing forming of short positions.

Conclusion:-

I expect NIFTY FUT to show up move next week. NIFTY SPOT will face Resistance 3190-3200-3260 levels. Above 3260 levels strong Resistance at 3310-20 levels. I also not ruled out possibility of NIFTY SPOT to touch 3400 levels. On Downside, NIFTY SPOT good Support at 2840-50 and 2790-2800 levels.

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 4.53% with 19% decreasing volumes indicating forming of long positions. We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive with Volatility. Telecom sector looks positive.

Trend : Bullish
NIFTY FUT total OI up 9.98%, NIFTY FUT up 3.61% last week.
OI of NIFTY 3000 CE, 3100 CE, 3200 CE and 3300 CE is up with rising prices showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 2500 PE, 2800 PE and 2900 PE is up with fall pricing showing put writing. I expect NIFTY spot to show up move next week.

NIFTY SPOT Resistance 3190-3200, 3240-50 and 3310-20 levels.
Sustain above 3330 levels will lead heavy short covering in market.
On downside, NIFTY SPOT Support 2840-50 levels.

TELECOM
Trend : Bullish
OI of BHARTIARTL FUT up 48.95%, IDEA FUT OI down 20.12%,RCOM FUT up 9.45%, TTML FUT OI up 11.95%, MTNL FUT OI down 10.91% and TATACOM FUT up 10.46% last week.
IDEA FUT and MTNL FUT showing short covering.
I expect TELECOM SECTOR to outperform next week. BHARTIARTL FUT looks strong.

FERTILISER
Trend : Bullish
OI of BINDALAGRO FUT flat, CHAMBLFERT FUT up 44.31%, GNFC FUT up 15.21% and NAGARFERT FUT up 23.91% last week.
FERTILISER counters show long positions build up. I expect up move next week. CHAMBLFERT FUT looks strong.

ON MONDAY FIRST 15---25 MIM WIL GIVE THE CLEAR TREND OF THE MARKET ....AT PRESENT MKT IS SIDE WAY'S
IF NIFTY SUSTAIN & TRADE ABV 3000 LEVEL IN THE GIVEN TIME FRAM C GOOD UP SIDE .....MAIN HURDLE 3110--3120...WHICH WIL BE ITS FIRST HURDLE ...IF CLOSE AT THIS & HOLD C NEXT HURDLE AT 3240--3260 HAD TO CROSS WITH GOOD VOLUME SO WE CAN MOVE TO NEXT GOOD LEVEL TO TOUCH --THAT WIL 3350----------3490++
BY THE END OF THIS EXPIRY !!!

NOW IF UNABLE TO SUSTAIN & CLOSED AT GIVEN HURDLE THAT IS 3120 & 3250 LEVEL C SELING IN THE MARKET ...
AT DN SIDE LEVEL WHICH IS THE MOST IMP. SUPPORT WIL BE 2860....THIS HOLD & CLOSDE ABV NO PANIC , BUT IF NOT C MORE SELL OFF IN THE MARKET ------TIL--2745............2630....!!!!!

LEVEL TO WATCH FOR MONDAY :---NIFTY SPOT !!

HOLD & SUSTAIN ABV 2950-----2995 TR 3035/3065/3100/3125/3260

FALLS BEL...2945 TR 2915/2885/2840/2795


NIFTY

ABV 2975-3000 MKT IS GOOD ..................BEL 2860-2845 MKT WIL BE WEAK

NIFTY FU :

BUY IN THE RANGE 2975 -3000 TR 3045/3080/3110/3180 (Sl Blw 2945).

SELL BELOW 2960-2945 TR 2935/2905/2860/2820 (Sl Abv 2975)

FOR THE COMING WEEK :--- STRATEGY

BUY NIFTY 3200 CAL & BUY NIFTY 2700 PUT .....BUY THIS BOTH & HOLD
NIFTY 3200 CAL—99/100 CLOSED & NIFTY 2700 PUT –94/95 CLOSED ....

BUY THIS BOTH WHEN NIFTY IS TRADING IN THE RANGE OF 3000 LEVEL ...
FOR eg:----IF U BROUGHT CAL AT 100 RS & PUT AROUND 90 RS UR TOTAL WIL BE ---190 OK SEL THIS BOTH WHEN ITS TOTAL BECOME MORE THAN 260++ +

Sell Reliance futures below 1280, Target: 1260, 1240, SL: 1295

Buy Reliance futures above 1240, Target: 1260, 1280, SL: 1225

Reliance has resistance at Rs 1480-1500

Buy Suzlon above 72, Target: 75, 78, SL: 70

Buy Relinfra above 570, Target: 584,600 SL: 565

Sell Tatamotors below 159, Target: 156,153, SL: 161

Buy Icicibank above 440, Target: 448,460 SL: 436

Sell M&M below 362, Target: 355,350 SL: 367

Tata Powers (Last closed = 735 ) Buy with stop loss below 720 tgt-755-765.

Positional

BUY in Truck Load NEYVELI LIGNITE CMP63.5.BUY and HOLD of 2-3-4 weeks

Buy Bisleri Gujarat now at 1.88 for short term....

BUY ALEMBIC LTD only above 36 with sl of 32 tgt 39-42

Buy Dish TV(17-18),Tgt:20-26

Buy GUJ NRE COKE cmp 30.75 SL 30 TARGET 35+ IN 2 TO 3 DAYS

BUY KANSAI NEROLEC PAINTS LTD CMP 403 TGT 630 IN 2 YEARS - UP SIDE 56%

Below Rs 270, Satyam Fut may slip Rs 250-240 & More++

Exit from SUZLON Energy @ Rs. 90 - 95.For Further UP side Suzlon has to cross its resistance level of 109-115-120

Those holding nifty 2300puts R advised to hold it untill good profit and average more on Monday opening if again u see it@14-18 and more.

SENSEX ---- (SUPPORT--9400/9270----RESISTANCE--10150/10380)
Technically sensex looking sideways for coming days. The next major Resistance level of sensex is 10380.

NIFTY ---- (SUPPORT--2920/2855----RESISTANCE--2975/3035/3110)
Technically Nifty is also looking sideways for coming days. The next major Strong Resistance in the nifty is above 3110 mark

BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED (SUPPORT--604----RESISTANCE--727)----BUY
Stock looking strong Technically. Indicators showing good up move for next few days. Traders can Buy cash and future for short term.

HDFC BANK LIMITED (SUPPORT--1011----RESISTANCE--1194)----BUY
Stock is looking great to buy for short term traders and investors. Traders can Buy cash and future.

(FORMAT : NAME OF STOCK – CMP – STOP-LOSS - TARGET-1/2/3)

TISCO : 191 – 90 - 96/200/207

R-COM : 228 – 25 - 231/36/42

Buy INDIAN BANK Above 140,Looks Good.

Buy PUNJ LOYD Above 205-206,Sl 201,Tgt 210-213-218

PunjLLoyd (199):-

Stock in positive mood and have positive strength. Buy above 208 in future /cash.Holding of 2-5 days.