Markets Weekly For 17-11-2008

Dismissal Week for Dow

The Dow Jones industrials fell almost 340 points and the major indexes all fell sharply for the second straight week. Stocks plunging, recovering and then plunging again as investors absorbed another wave of downbeat economic news.
Analysts believe the market is still searching for a bottom after last month’s huge losses, and that the pattern of volatility will continue for some time

Mean while Retail sales plunged by a record amount in October. Sales slumped 2.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted $363.7 billion, the largest decline since the series began in 1992. The previous record was a 2.65 percent drop in November 2001 in the wake of the terrorist attacks that year.

For the week, the Dow lost 4.99 percent, the S&P fell 6.20 percent and the Nasdaq tumbled 7.92 percent.

More Steps from RBI to Combat the Credit Crisis

Meanwhile The Reserve Bank of India announced a slew of measures to attract foreign currency deposits and boost liquidity to mutual funds, non-banking finance companies and exporters. The move comes after the central bank cut interest rates twice in less than a month to shield the economy from the global slowdown.
The bank also allowed housing finance companies to raise short-term foreign-currency loans. This is a temporary step only available to companies registered with the National Housing Bank. Companies Like LIC HOUSING FIN will be benifits from this move.

RBI said it would consider proposals from Indian companies to buy back foreign-currency convertible bonds. The buyback will be financed by the company's foreign currency resources held in India or abroad and/or out of fresh external commercial borrowing (ECB).

China, Brazil, India would take a greater role, G-20 leaders say.

The members of the G-20 are the finance ministers and central bank governors of 19 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The European Union is also a member.
To ensure global economic fora and institutions work together, the IMF and the World Bank, plus the chairs of the International Monetary and Financial Committee and Development Committee of the IMF and World Bank, also participate in G-20 meetings on an ex-officio basis.

World leaders holding an emergency meeting to combat the economic crisis agreed Saturday to a far-reaching action plan that, over the next 4 1/2 months, would begin to reshape international financial institutions and reform worldwide regulatory and accounting rules.Under the plans outlined by the leaders, countries such as China, Brazil and India would gain greater roles and responsibilities as part of a restructuring of the international financial system, while European leaders won a commitment to new regulations and controls on banks, rating agencies and exotic financial securities.

Last Week

->Inflation declined sharply to 8.98% in the week ending 01 November 2008 from 10.72%
->Expectations of a further cut in interest rates.
->FII's had so far Pulled out Rs 50,432.30 crore till 11 November 2008.
->World Economic Forum and Confederation of Indian Industry said India could see a sharp outflow of capital, and a fall in share and asset prices due to the global financial Crisis
->Citigroup on Friday said it expects India's economy to grow at a slower pace than it had earlier anticipated for 2008/09 and 2009/10 fiscal years.

Weekly NSE Index (C-2810.35)

Resistance: 2920/2960/3040-3055/3160-3175/3275-3300/3390

Support : 2775-2740-Weak/2675/2545-2535/2245

Weekly BSE Sensex (C-9385.42)

Resistance : 9750/10215/10710/11050/11275

Support : 9255-9265-Weak/8910/8650/8440

Weekly Nifty Future (C-2809.95)

Resistance : 2920/3070/3330

Support 2765-weak/2790/2600

Weekly Bank Future (C-4723.95)

Resistance : 4885/5120/5515

Support : 4650-Weak/4485/4255

NIFTY TO SHOW PULLBACK NIFTY NEEDS TO CLOSE ABOVE 3005 FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS FOR UPSIDE TARGETS OF 3055/3120/3220/3330/3445/3505.
HOWEVER TWO CONSECUTIVE NIFTY CLOSE BELOW 2775 WILL OPEN DOWNSIDE TARGETS OF 2690/2630/2545/2480/2380/2245.
STOCK FUTURE POSITIONS NEEDS TO BE HEDGED WITH OPTIONS.

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI marginal up with 21% decreasing volumes indicating forming of short positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile

Daily NSE Index (C-2810.35)

Resistance:2845-2860/2910-2940/3005-3030

Support :2785/2745-2730/2690/2650-2640

Daily BSE Sensex (C-9385.42)

Resistance : 9500/9725/9845/10065/10130

Support 9265-9235-Weak/9155/9115-9100/8920-8900

Daily Nifty Future (C-2809.95)

Resistance : 2840/2880/2905-2915/2960-2980/3005/3075

Support : 2770-Weak/2755-2740/2675-2665

Daily Bank Future (C-4723.95)

Resistance : 4770/4885/5045

Support : 4650-Weak/4610/4490

Nifty Future : Flag Pattern

Nifty managed to Close above 2800 for the Last 10 Trading Sessions, which indicates that the Bears are not so aggressive as before.

But Indicators and Charts Suggests that the Picture of Bearishness is definitely not as Bleak as Painted by some Analyst, Media's, TV Channels and Junk Operators.

Support @ 2800 and 2700
Resistance @ 2900 and 3000

Market View –17.11.2008

Opening is flat to down, Stay Short Below 2840,Sl Above 2850,Tgt 2780-2745-2680.

Sustain Above 2845,Buy with SL Below 2830,Tgt 2880-2910-3005-3040.

OR

If Nifty Future is trading at 2750 and moves to 2780, then Long at 2780 or when it retraces to 2770 with Stop Loss at 2750. When it moves to 2795-2800 trial it at 2765 and when it moves to 2810 bring your Stop Loss to 2780 and so on. If Stop loss gets hit it means a Trend Reversal. For Short positions reverse is true.

INTRADAY

RELIANCE : Sell @ 1170-75 with Strict SL 1190 T 1135/1120 (don't sale in last hour) + also buy @ 1095+1090 SL 1065 T 1140/1160/1173 close above hold

POWERGRID : Sell below 72 keep stoploss at 73 lower targets 70, 69 there after real free fall.

LIC HSG : Sell below 210 keep stoploss at 214 lower targets 200, 195

ONGC : Sell @ 720/22 with SL 735 T 690/680 (don't in last hour) or open low buy @ 670+72 with SL 660 T 695/700/715 if close above hold long for next day

SATYAM : Sell @ 266-65 with SL 270 T 260/258 (not in last hour) or also buy @ 249-250 with SL 242 T 260/265 / Position trader buy and hold with SL given

Tata Powers (Last closed = 747 ) Sell with stop loss above 758 tgt-730-715.

Selling Expected In WELSPUN GUJRAT Below 106-105

Sell GAIL Below 198 ,TGT 190-185,Sl : 205

BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED (SUPPORT--604----RESISTANCE--727)----BUY

Looking strong Technically. Indicators showing good up move for next few days. Traders can Buy cash and future for short term.

HDFC BANK LIMITED (SUPPORT--956----RESISTANCE--1194)----BUY

Stock is looking great to buy for short term traders and investors. Traders can Buy cash and future.

RELINFRA : CMP NOVEMBER FUT 514

For today trading consider 536,553 levels as resistance. On down side below 507 expect sell off up to 491,474,463,446 levels.

Scrip	Trigger	Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
BHARTIARTL	BUY ABOVE	654.65	648.75	661.85	672.10
	SELL BELOW	640.40	646.15	633.35	623.55
LT	BUY ABOVE	800.70	793.50	809.50	822.05
	SELL BELOW	783.25	790.30	774.65	762.65

POSITIONAL

"Gaps Filled"

After touching 1087 last friday, RIL moved up and closed @ 1046. So as Per chart 3rd Gap has been Filled and Now We feel its time to BUY.

Now Buy with a Stop Loss of 1040 on Closing basis...Once able to cross 1200 and 1250, then Huge Short Covering on Card. Bulls will have full control of the Stock.

STEEL AUTHORITY(C-68):Weekly Chart Looking Weak:Sell around 76-78,Trgt 60/50/40,Resistance-84/100

TATA STEEL(C-173): Weekly Chart Looking Weak: Sell around 187-195,Target 160/130/120,Resistance-200/235

GAS AUTHORTY (C-200): Daily Chart Looking Weak: Sell around 205,Trgt 195/185/175,Resistance-210/225

ZEE TELEFILMS (C-110: Daily Chart Looking Weak: Sell around 116,Target 103,Resistance-120/135

COMMODITY

• SELL GOLD @ 11750-780 SL 11812 TGT 11710-11680-11640.MCX

• SELL SILVER @ 16900-16980 SL 17084 TGT 16835-760-712. MCX

• BUY CRUDE ABV 2796 SL 2766 TGT 2812-2836-2864.MCX

• BUY COPPER @ 183-183.50 SL 181.60 TGT 184.80-185.60-187.70.MCX

• BUY ZINC ABV 60.80 SL 58.90 TGT 62.40-64.20.MCX

• BUY NICKEL @ 550-554 SL 546.20 TGT 558.60-562.40-566.60-570.MCX

• BUY GUAR @ 1710-1720 SL 1690 TGT 1734-1756-1772.NCDEX

• SELL SUGARM @ 1820-1830 SL 1844 TGT 1806-1790-1776.NCDEX

• SELL MENTHOL @ 482-484 SL 488.20 TGT 479.40-476.10-472.00.

MCX

Copper --- Bottomout process is very near …Be prepared and get ready to cover shorts at lower levels. On downside strong support zone is 168-175…

ONLY ABV 190.00 MKT LOOKS POSITIVE ELSE RANGE WILL BE 180-190.

Crude : If cross 68$ this week before thursday than it may Confirm the bottom for tgt 75$+ while a break below 54$ can give 52$ and below . This week crude movement will be crucial for market so keep an eye in it and take positions at cautious.

Crude likely in the path to test the $50-53 Support.
Failure of support would test the December 2004 low of $40/barrel

Gold Levels: above 781$ its +Ve however looking a bit +ve but avoid any fresh position till not clearing any trend so wait sometime

RUMOURS : Short-Medium Term : Sell all stocks. BUY GOLD.