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Thursday, February 7, 2008

Market Crucial Supports/Resistance

? SENSEX (14403.77)
(Upward Rise up to 14661.30 should be used to Sell & Exit from the market, Reverse Trend will be Generated if closes below 14212 level) Support: 14335=14265 & fall to 14212 (below @ 14135=14075) Resistance: 14485=14520 & zoom to 14561.60 (above @ 14661.50)

 Nifty (4183.50)
(Upward Rise up to 4220 & 4257.60 should be used to Sell & Exit from the Nifty based Counter & do short sell Trades) Support: 4167=4148 & fall to 4125=4112 (below @ 4095=4080/4065
Resistance: 4205.50=4220.50 & zoom to 4235=4245 (above @ 4257.60).

What's our point?
Ans: That when the "sentiment" and "mood" of the gambling class goes sour, it doesn't come back to take punts at the table. For a long time. And when there aren't enough maniacs around the table, there isn't much volume nor action in the punt.
Same here now.
Don't expect anything to change for the better at Wall Street (or our own Punting Street at Bombay) for many months.
>The American consumer is sulking like he's never done since 2002.
He isn't spending crazily.
He can't ....because now his credit card company has detached his gonads and taken them to their vault.
So has the Housing-loan company.
Now his employer is trying to get a piece of those organs.
What next?
The Mood
>The feelings on The Indian Street are still that "everything will come back, won't it?"
>There still is "hope" that the India Shining thing will at least come back as the reason for the FIIs to buy again.
>All think the FIIs mean what they say. All know they too are in this business for profit. But all hope-to-God they are going to buy again from these lows.
>What should you do?
Before the mood changes to "disgust" next month, make sure that you get out of ALL deliveries thismonth is the ensuing rally...And be ready to short from next month onwards.

In Feb:
>A rally here...after all the overnight global news is priced and digested and factored in every morning.

From March onwards after the Budget:
>When bad economic statistics from America hit the world next month this time, then all will say it's a trend and that's when you'll see the real bear out with its fangs and claws.
>Be ready much before that chaos begins.
Get into 100% cash in Feb's rally.
And be psychologically ready to short the markets after the Budget is priced in.
Or BUDD-jet as that mediocrity for a bond girl of CNBC India calls it.

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