Stock Specific :ALEMBIC (Long Term )

Alembic

Current price : Rs 65 Target price : Rs 93
Potential upside :43% Time Frame :12 months
OUTPERFORMER

Performance hit by poor margins …
Alembic’s results for Q3FY08 were below expectations. The company’s net profit from continuing business declined 18.40% y-o-y due to a drastic fall in EBIDTA margin by 669 bps and increase in interest cost by 177%. It reported a net profit of Rs 42 crore in on account of profit on sales of land to the tune of Rs 22.55 crore. Top line grew 40% y-o-y to Rs 260 crore on the back of a 132% y-o-y growth in exports to Rs 91.63 crore, and a 14% growth in domestic revenues to Rs 173.63 crore. The crash in prices of Pen-G was the main reason for the pressure on EBIDTA margin. From Q4FY08 onwards, we expect EBIDTA margins to return to 17-18% as the company is working at a downstream product Pen-G where realizations are healthy. The improvement in the regulated market exports is a positive sign.

EBIDTA margin declined 669 bps
EBIDTA margin plunfed 669 bps largely due to a drastic decline in Pen-G prices from US$18 per bu to US$7 per bu. The crash was due to increased exports from China. Pen-G contributed around Rs 30 crore (around 12%) to the company's top line in Q3FY08 at an average price of below US$10. Gross contribution on Pen-G was almost zero, leading to a significant pressure on EBIDTA. Outsourcing costs increased 76% during the quarter y-o-y (on percentto-

sales, the purchase of finished goods increased by 3.3%). This was mainly due to outsourcing of production for the products under non-oncology business of Dabur Pharma. In-house production lead to a saving in excise due to production site in Baddi in Himachal Pradesh (an excise-free zone). For the continuing business, the company had a 65:35 mix of in-house and outsourced production. New formulation increased outsourcing and thus excise, which in

turn impacted EBIDTA margin. Moreover, higher R&D cost (4.3% of sales), which grew by 65% y-o-y in Q3FY08 on account of increased ANDA and DMF filings for the regulatory markets also impacted the EBIDTA margins.

Valuation
In our initiating report (Aug 19, 2006), we had observed that the CRAMS business is likely to gain more traction in FY08. We witnessed a significant jump in CRAMS business in Q3FY08. We continue to be bullish on the stock and reiterate our OUTPERFORMER rating. At the current price of Rs 65, the stock trades at 6.99x FY09E EPS of Rs 9.30 and 5.24x FY10E EPS of Rs 12.40.of 37%.

Domestic business grew at 14%
The largest revenue contributor, the domestic business, grew 14% y-o-y to Rs 173.63 crore (as per our expectations). Domestic formulation grew 17% to Rs 152.12 crore, while the domestic bulk business de-grew 2% to Rs 21.51 crore. Alembic’s own formulations business grew 4% while the recently acquired nononcology business of Dabur Pharma contributed around Rs 17 crore. In the absence of the acquisition of the Dabur Pharma business, the company would have reported lower growth. Lower continuing business growth and decline in Pen-G prices impacted the domestic sales growth. In order to reduce the de-risk from the Pen-G price vagaries, Alembic is foraying into production of some downstream product of Pen-G.

Handsome growth in regulatory market export
Alembic’s high-margin formulation export to regulated markets grew by 471% to Rs 26 crore, while API exports to regulatory markets grew by 424% y-o-y to Rs 33 crore. The company recorded overall export growth 132% y-o-y in Q3FY08 on the back of a 128% rise in formulation exports and 136% rise in API exports. We expect the growth trend to continue in the quarters to come as the company is supplying formulations and APIs under long-term contract. With the rise in exports to regulatory markets, we believe margins would improve. The company is also working on few deals for the regulated market export. If the deal clicks, growth would be even higher.

Aggressive filing – increase the depth
Alembic has increased its focus on ANDA filings. So far, the company has filed 8 ANDA and is working on 10,which it expects to file in next 12 to 18 months. We believe more traction in regulatory market formulationrevenue as the company is likely to start getting approvals in next 6 to 12 months.