Dear Investors / Traders,
Are we near short term bottom or not ? , another 400 -- 500 points down a bottom(18300-18800) should form technically if all goes well , but the problem is the magnitude of falling which could take this bottom much lower and we could test new supports. so we have to see this fall as a fall in mid way till it recovers backs to a pos which is good enough to change our judgement of correction which would be seen in future.
As seen in the chart we are in a channel formation since jan-april '04, the tops & bottoms were made in jan -apr'04 respectively.the channel formation (pink parralel lines) has a median channel (blue) and two other support channels (green) as indicated.
On the downside at 19000 we r very near to test the median line of the channel which is positioned around 18500 , it is for certain that if we break this level we would take consider effort & time to touch new highs as we have done in previous occasions.
Has the bull market ended ? no not likely this bull market would end up only if we go below 16000, now we r seriously running in support zone , but panic among among leveraged retail investors is yet to be fully seen which could take us some more down.
The present fall appears to be a wind fall and those who have not applied in IPOs are the most intelligent and lucky. many stocks like ACC , RIL, INFOSYS, TCS, WIPRO etc are now available at year low possible prices to day
NIFTY LEVELS ARE SO DECEPTIVE. SOME OF THE STOCKS LIKE INFOSYS ARE TODAY MUCH CHEAPER IN A LONG LONG TIME. NOW ENTRY IN THESE STOCKS AT THE LEVELS CAN MEAN A FORTUNE IN 2008.
SORRY FOR THE PEOPLE WHO APPLIED IN IPOs AS SO CALLED GREY MKT PREMIUM MAY VANISH BY THE TIME THEY ARE LISTED
Suppots by channel formation are at 18500,17000, 15900.
Supports on weekly moving avg 18700, 17200, 16700
Supports on dma 18420 (100dma) 16050 (220dma)
Lets see 18500 proves to be a support or just a level.
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