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Technical View: NIFTY Future
Nifty February Future opened at 4837.90, touched the low of 4777.05 and then due to huge short covering coupled with fresh long buildup tested the high of 4927.90 & closed at 4845.95. The main point to be noted is that Nifty future was unable to go beyond 4950 whole week so in the coming week this level will act as a resistance for nifty fut. but at the same time we are seeing the level 4700-4750 as a good support for the coming week. Short term support for nifty fut is 4700-4750 possible resistance will be 4950-5050. If Nifty future decline below 4780 levels then selling pressure till 4700-4650 levels may also be seen.
Open 4837.90 - High 4927.90
Low 4777.05 - Close 4848.00
The Defty advanced during the early part of the week as expected, but has now fallen back. The momentum of the uptrend is now lost and a period of stagnation can take place. We expect dull two way trends in the near future.
Supports : 3550 / 3400
Resistances : 3650 / 3775
The hesitant recovery in the PSU Index has failed to sustain. The short term indicators have turned weak in the last two sessions. Further declines are now possible in this index.
Supports : 9100 / 8800
Resistances : 9500 / 9700
The Auto index has stagnated during this week. The medium term momentum remains damaged due to this behaviour. We could see similar dull behaviour in the next week too.
Supports : 6850 / 6600
Resistances : 7050 / 7250
The Cap Goods index has been trading in a very narrow range during the week. It is gaining a bias to weakness over the short term. The level of 12400 is a strong support for the medium term trend.
Supports : 13000 / 12600
Resistances : 13250 / 13500
The IT index has been steady during the week. It continues to close above its medium term average (currently at 4950). However, a bullish view cannot be taken immediately as the trend does not exude strength. We prefer to wait and watch for new developments.
Supports : 5000 / 4800
Resistances : 5300 / 5500
The Bankex continued to be volatile within a range during the week. This sideways movement can continue in the coming weeks too. A move below 9100 can create further weakness in the trend.
Supports : 9350 / 9100
Resistances : 9600 / 9800
Combination of moving averages in negative crossover: The combination of moving averages used for tracking the medium term trend of the stock is presently in a bearish crossover mode. It is indicating that the medium term trend is weak at present.
Momentum gaining strength on the downside: The medium / long term momentum (KST) had been drifting downward in line with the price trend.This indicator is below its trigger line and is trending down. This is a sign that the trend is likely to lose further strength & result in lower prices.
Recommendation: The trend of IDEA CELLULAR as read by its moving averages and momentum indicator is weak from a medium term perspective. This weakness is likely to extend further and can result in lower prices. A price target of Rs45 - 42 looks achievable over the next 3 - 4 months.
The stock closed at Rs.150.95 on 19th February 2010. It made a 52-week low at Rs.48.30 on 12th March 2009 and 52-week high of Rs.219.00 on 03rd December 2009. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is currently at Rs.143.
Its price chart clearly shows the rise that we witnessed after the break out from the consolidation zone & consequently reversal in the trend in trend as well. It doubled in short span but then struggled around 200 EMA levels and went range bound. In later half of 2009, it managed to overcome the same and tested 200+ levels where the strong selling pressure lead to retest the 200 EMA again. In the last traded week, it has formed inverted hammer candlestick pattern which is bullish in nature with considerable rise in volume so one can accumulate in a range of 145-148 levels with closing below stop loss of 135 levels for the targets of 170-180 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.105.50 on 19th February 2010. It made a 52-week low at Rs.48.50 on 06th March 2009 and 52-week high of Rs.126.40 on 19th January 2010. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is currently at Rs.85.
Like other fertilizer counters, it's reversal with the overall trend lead to test resistance zone around 120 levels where it struggled to sustain. Meanwhile, the overbought reading from the oscillators ensued profit booking which lead to test the support zone around 90 levels and bounced back. Keeping in view the current picture, it's now sustaining above 100 levels and indeed formed fresh buying pivot. One may accumulate between 98-102 levels with closing below stop loss of 93 levels for the targets of 118-125 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.105.45 on 19th February 2010. It made a 52-week low at Rs.59.75 on 27th February 2009 and 52-week high of Rs.114.50 on 18th January 2010. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is currently at Rs.92.
After the sharp fall in the bear run, it rose steadily from the bottom forming higher highs and higher lows. Although the pace of inclination remained slightly steep resultant minor correction but it still managed to sustain around the support zone and rebounded thereafter. It's clearly trading in the uptrend channel with noticeable liquidity and tested the lower trend line recently so one can accumulate in a range of 100-103 levels with closing below stop loss of 95 levels for the targets of 120-130 levels.
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
Buy Feb. 1740.00 CA @ 6.00
Sell Feb. 1700.00 CA @ 14.5
Lot Size: 200 --- BEP:1708.50
Max Profit: 6300.00(31.5 x 200) / Max Loss: 1700.00(8.5 x 200)
Buy Mar. 70.00 PA @ 4.05
Sell Mar. 60.00 PA @ 1.15
Lot Size: 3000 --- BEP: 67.10
Max Profit: 21300.00(7.1x3000) / Max Loss: 8700.00(2.9x3000)
Buy Mar. 290.00 PA @ 15.50
Sell Mar. 280.00 PA @ 12.00
Lot Size: 800 --- BEP: 286.50
Max Profit:5200.00(6.5x800) / Max Loss:2800.00(3.5x800)
Buy Mar. 130.00 PA @ 7.50
Sell Mar. 120.00 PA @ 3.50
Lot Size: 1688 --- BEP:126.00
Max Profit:10128.00(6x1688) / Max Loss:6752.00(4x1688)
Buy FEB. 110.00 PA @ 4.60
Sell FEB. 100.00 PA @ 1.00
Lot Size: 2400 --- BEP: 106.40
Max Profit:15360.00(6.4x2400) / Max Loss:8640.00(3.6x2400)
Buy Mar. 160 CA @ 10.00
Buy Mar. 160 PA @ 7.00
Lot Size: 700
Upside BEP: 177.00 --- Downside BEP:143.00
Max Profit: Unlimited / Max Loss:11900.00(17.00x700)
Buy Feb. 50 CA @ 0.80
Sell Feb. 50 PA @ 1.50
Lot Size: 7880
Upside BEP: 52.30 --- Downside BEP: 47.70
Max Profit: Unlimited / Max Loss: 18124.00(2.30x7880)
Buy Feb. 840 CA @ 9.00
Buy Feb. 820 PA @ 8.30
Lot Size:350
Upside BEP:857.30 --- Downside BEP: 802.70
Max Profit: Unlimited / Max Loss:6055.00(17.30x350)
The price of Crude Oil has approached the $80 level as expected. It can face stiff resistance in this area. We prefer a wait & watch stance for now.
Supports : 77 / 75.25
Resistances : 80 : 81.5
The price of Silver has attempted an upmove in line with other metals. However, the level of its 200 DMA ($16) is offering resistance. The upmove in Silver is the weakest so far. However, a push up to the level of $16.75 - 17 can still develop.
Supports : 15.5 / 14.8
Resistances : 16.2 / 17
Aluminium prices bounced over the last few sessions. However, the move may not be sustainable as it lacks technical strength. The price area of $2200 can offer some stiff resistance to the trend.
Supports : 2050 / 1925
Resistances : 2150 / 2250
Zinc has moved up very sharply but now faces resistance at $2400. It is likely that the trend will turn sideways and be choppy for the next few sessions ranging between $2200 - 2400.
Supports : 2200 / 2100
Resistances : 2400 / 2525
The price of Gold bounced from its support level of $1050. It is presently trading in a choppy sideways trend. However, it holds the potential to advance further to $1150 - 1175 where resistance is likely to develop.
Supports : 1075 / 1050
Resistances : 1120 / 1150
Copper price has recovered further over the last week. The momentum still looks good and the trend can advance further to $7500 or slightly more.
Supports : 7100 / 7000
Resistances : 7350 / 7500
1st February '10. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at
Rs 462.06.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.87. One can
buy in the range 460-458 with the stop loss of Rs 451 for a target of Rs 480.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 29.95. One can
buy in the range 478-480 with the stop loss of Rs 468 for a target of Rs 510.
Global Equities
The SP500 has closed above 1090 which is a positive signal for now. It now needs to stay above this level to establish its positive credentials. A sideways consolidation can be expected now. If the index holds above 1080 it should be considered as positive
Supports : 1080 / 1050
Resistances : 1120 / 1140
The Bovespa has recovered sharply through the week. This bounce now needs to get Consolidated. We believe that the next week could see conslidation of the trend. A narrow range bound movement is expected over the next few sessions.
Supports : 67200 / 66700
Resistances : 68100 / 68500
The SSE continues trading below its 200 DMA. A minor bounce back is playing out now, but it can face resistance around 3050. From a long term perspective, the trend is bearish and as long as the SSE remains below 3400, it is to be considered a weak market.
Supports : 2980 / 2925
Resistances : 3050 / 3075
The attempted bounceback in the HS has failed and it has again fallen below its 200 DMA. This is a signal of weakness.We maintain that it will remain weak as long as it is below 20750/21000.
Supports : 19600 / 19200
Resistances : 20250 / 20500
The Nikkei attempted a bounce from its 200 DMA as expected, but has fallen back again. It continues to be weak in line with our view. We expect choppy trend over the next few sessions.
Supports : 10000 / 9700
Resistances : 10325 / 10500
The FTSE recovered quite sharply after reaching near 5000 our expected target. However, such a sharp upmove would lead to some consolidation in the trend over the next few sessions. We expect a choppy trend for the next week.
Supports : 5100 / 5000
Resistances : 5400 / 5600
The EMI has bounced sharply after reaching 890, which is near its 200 DMA of 887. This can lead to a consolidation of the trend for some sessions. We expect a sideways narrow range bound move in the coming days.
Supports : 925 / 875
Resistances : 950 / 975
Currencies
The USD/INR faced resistance near 47 as we had mentioned in our previous report. The trend has fallen back since then. However, short term momentum has weakened and we continue to expect a period of stagnation.The USD/INR can range between 46 - 47 for some time.
Supports : 46.25 / 46.00
Resistances : 46.50 / 46.75
The EUR/USD has fallen to 1.35 as we had expected. It is now slightly below this level. Weakness persists in the trend for now. However, the technicals are looking oversold and this can arrest the trend for a while. It is a wait & watch situation for now.
Supports : 1.3400 / 1.3200
Resistances : 1.3650 / 1.3750
The DXY advanced again after a short sideways choppy phase. The upward momentum can carry the DXY further to about 82. Bullish fatigue is likely to set in around this level as the technicals will become overbought.
Supports : 80.5 / 79.0
Resistances : 82.0 / 83.0
The USD/JPY has moved up smartly to 92. However, it is too early to say whether the trend would be sustainable. Over the medium term, we expect broad two way trends to develop.
Supports : 91.00 / 89.00
Resistances : 92.50 / 93.50
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