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THE WEEK THAT WAS

Weekly wrap…Sensex, Nifty drift 2% each

Sensex lost 2.3% to end at 17,720 while the Nifty fell 2.5% to shut shop at 4,988.

Bears seem to tighten their grip over the Indian bourses, which was otherwise quite lackluster. The Nifty lost nearly 4% from its 52-week high, which it rose to during the previous week. Murky economic outlook, worry of soaring food prices and possible interest rates hike continued to weigh upon the sentiment. For the week, the BSE Sensex lost 2.3% to end at 17,720 while the NSE Nifty fell 2.5% to shut shop at 4,988.


The BSE Sensex hit an intra-week high of 17,275 and low of 16,899 while the NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 5,156 and low of 4,979.


The Top Gainers : The top gainers in the Sensex were Ranbaxy Labs (up 6.5%), ACC (up 5.5%), Cipla (up 4.7%), Wipro (up 4.7%) and Tata Motors (up 3.1%).

The Top Losers : The top losers in the Sensex were HDFC Bank (down 6.8%), DLF (down 6.7%), ICICI Bank (down 6.4%), Reliance Industries (down 5.9%) and SBI (down 5.3%).




OBSERVATION :-

1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 1.61% NIFTY DEC FUT down 2.44% last week. 6 points discount decreased to 1 point discount (+5 points) compare to NIFTY SPOT last week.

2) Out of NIFTY 50 STOCK FUTS, 13 STOCK FUTS closed positive, 28 STOCK FUTs closed negative and 9 STOCK FUTs close flat last week.

3) OI of current series 5000 CE is up 48.05% prices down 58.17% showing call writing. OI of current series 5100 CE is up 66.45% prices down 69% showing aggressive call writing. OI of NIFTY 5100 CE is 77.19 LK highest OI in CALLs.

4) OI of current series 5000 PE is down 13.76% prices up 22.20% showing short covering plus buying. OI of current series 5100 PE is down 43.11% prices up 35.91% showing profit booking. OI of NIFTY 4900 PE is 49.37 LK highest OI in PUTs.

5) Total OI of NIFTY DEC series CALLs is up 43.06 LK to 3.95 CR, DEC series PUTs is down 37.03 LK to 4.43 CR. NIFTY DEC series PCR (OI) at 1.12 down by 0.24 points last week.




NIFTY (4987.70)

Resistance : 5050 / 5105 / 5180 / 5250

Support : 4925 / 4860-50 / 4790 / 4725


SENSEX (16719.83)

Resistance : 16865 / 16985 / 17140 / 17365 / 17515

Support : 16665 / 16560 / 16385 / 16155 / 15915 / 15750

NIFTY FUT (4986.8)

Resistance : 5020-30 / 5175-85 / 5220-40

Support : 4930-50 / 4855-65 / 4800-10




BHARTI (317.85) : Sell Below 320/25,Sl 335,Tgt 300+

R : 335 / 355

S : 300 / 280


RCOM (172)

R : 185 / 195

S : 165 / 155


RELIANCE (1007.65)

R : 1035 / 1060 / 1090 / 1125

S : 995 / 975 / 950


TATASTEEL (563.25) : Sell Below 560/65,Sl 575,Tgt 545+

R : 575 / 590

S : 545 / 525


RNRL (68.55)

R : 69.3 / 70.4 / 72.2

S : 67.1 / 65.7


LNT (1650.05)

R : 1670 / 1695 / 1725 / 1750

S : 1620 / 1590 / 1550 / 1530 / 1480


RELINFRA (1029)

R : 1040 / 1080 / 1135

S : 975 / 935


DLF (357.4)

R : 370 / 385 / 405

S : 345 / 330


SBI (2145.35)

R : 2185 / 2245 / 2345

S : 2085 / 2020

RELCAP (818.7)

R : 835 / 850 / 875

S : 805 / 785


ICICI (809.35)

R : 830 / 855 / 895

S : 785 / 760




SECTOR WATCH ( BANKING ) : DOWN MOVE TO CONTINUE



ANDHRABANK FUT : OI up 55.05% prices down 10.07% last week. Shorts build up. Below 101, more weakness expected. R 107.


BANKINDIA FUT : OI up 37.19% prices down 7.13% last week. Shorts build up. Below 359, down move to continue. R 374.


KOTAKBANK FUT : OI up 72.68% prices down 4.10% last week. Heavy shorts build up. Sharp down move below 765. R 786.




STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK : DLF FUT ( BEARISH )


OI up 33.86% prices down 6.41% last week. Shorts build up. Below 355, more weakness expected. R 387.




BUY


ULTRATECH,Sl 840,Tgt 925/950/65

MPHAHSIS,Sl 675,Tgt 740/55/70

AUSTRALCOKE,Sl 8,Tgt 12.5/13.5

RUCHISTRIP,Sl 8,Tgt 14/15/16


JKIL@ 180,Sl 170,Tgt 195/200/205

JYOTISTR@ 160,Sl 140,Tgt 190/200/210




CONCLUSION :-

I expect down move to continue for next few sessions. NIFTY SPOT S 4960-70, 4900-4910. I expect bounce near 4900 levels which will move up for 4990-5000, 5030-40 levels. Any up move should be used to exit longs and to initiate shorts at higher levels. Still NIFTY FUT intraday volumes on lower side. I will prefer to watch 4850-4900 levels with intraday volumes and OI if both rises then possibility of BREAKDOWN.




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