Markets For 31/03/2009

Daily Market Outlook: 31 March 2009

After moving upwards for five consecutive trading sessions, as predicted on last Friday Indian equity markets lost steam and took a nosedive to close in negative zone. It was the US market that triggered the fall as the US government task force rejected the viability plans of General Motors and Chrysler. Asian markets also tumbled. Further the weak opening of European markets added to the woes. While Sensex shaded 480 points to close at 9568, Nifty shaded 130.50 points to close at 2978. Financial heavyweights like SBI, ICICI and HDFC were amongst the biggest losers as they erased almost all their last 4 days gains in a single session. Some positive stock last day that remain positive in midcaps are Opto Circuit, S.Kumar’s, ICSA, KSK, Chambal Fert, NFCL, Thermax and Bombay Dyeing.

On the sectoral front, except consumer durables, all other sectoral indices closed in the red. Bankex, metals and realty were the major culprits with steep. While banking sector suffered from renewed concern, metal lost the plot on account of expected decline in demand. Interestingly, major selling was seen in Sensex based counters rather than the madcap and small cap counters. Market breadth was negative with 1471 declines and 904 advances. Certain stocks that are looking positive are ChambalFert (above 43), NFCL (above 19), HPCL (above 265), EKC and Financial Tech. Auto stocks could also be bought as they still retain the positive bias.

NIFTY (2978.15)

Support : 2945 / 2920 / 2890 / 2865 / 2840

Resistance : 3040 / 3065 / 3090 / 3105 / 3140

SENSEX

Support : 9425 / 9335 / 9285

Resistance : 9805 / 9900 / 10045

NIFTY FUT (2988)

Support : 2955 / 2915 / 2860

Resistance : 3015 / 3045 / 3105

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI down 5.43% with flat volumes indicating not only unwinding of long positions but forming of fresh short positions too.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

On Tuesday,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 2980,Sl Abv 3000,Tgt 2920-2870,

Sustain Above 3000,Buy with Sl Below 2980,Tgt 3070-3120.

POSITIONAL : Buy 50%NIFTY 2970 & other 50% 2940,Sl 2915,Tgt 3100

Buy OPTOCIRCUITS Above 85

Buy CHAMBALFERT Above 43

Buy SUNPHARMA Above 1110

Buy BRFL Above 145,Tgt 150/55,Sl 143

Buy TATAELEXSI Above 80,Tgt 84-86-92,Sl 79

Buy MARUTI Above 760,Tgt 775-790-830,Sl 740

Sell RELCAPITAL Below 335

Sell NTPC Below 185,Tgt 180/75/70,Sl 190

Sell SBIN(1022),Tgt 1010/1000/990,Sl Above 1040

Sell CIPLA Below 215,Tgt 210-205-195,Sl 220

Sell GAIL Below 235,Tgt 225-220-210,Sl 240

Sell M&M Below 370,Tgt 360-350-330,Sl 380

Sell WIPRO Below 240,Tgt 235-230-220,Sl 245

Buy TVSMOTORS April Above 22/23,Sl 21.4,Tgt 22.85/23.1/23.5/23.8/24 (Lot Size : 11800)

BHEL (1474) : Sell 1490/1500,Sl 1515,Tgt 1460/50/40/35

HDFCBK (945) : Sell 965/55,Sl 980,Tgt 940/30/20/10

RIL(1516) : Sell 1530/20,Sl 1540,Tgt 1495/80/50

Sell RPOWER April@ 103/01,Sl 104,Tgt 100/99.6/98.6/97.5/96.6/95.7/94.6/93.8 (Lot Size : 2000)

World Markets - Astrologically

Crude Oil / Gold / Silver

CRUDEOIL likely to make 1 more attempt for rise between 31st and 02nd April but in totality Crude Oil is looking weak till 07th April 2009. 2 Weekly close above US$ 51/ barrel will set higher targets of $67-$69 which will be achieved in coming weeks. Regarding Gold and Silver, we have already communicated 2-3 weeks back that till 25th March, both these metals will remain under pressure despite occasional minor rallies. Both GOLD and SILVER will try to stage come back early this week but after 31st March both Silver and Gold will turn weak for next 7-10 Days.

US Dollar/ Indian Rupee ( USDINR)
Astrologically, Indian Rupee may remain strong against US Dollar till 31st March but after that volatility can be expected in which US Dollar will be slightly stronger against Indian Rupee.

US Markets
Astrologically, Both Nasdaq and Dow Jones are likely to bounce back after initial weakness on 30th March but most indicators favour decline on 01st April and weakness may continue for 1-2 Days. Despite weekly movements on both sides, US Markets are likely to be positive till 8th-10th of April despite occasional declines and rallies.

Markets For 30/3/2009

NIFTY (3108.65) : This Week Expect NIFTY To Be In Range Of 2950-3190

Resistance : 3140 / 3170 / 3190 / 3210 / 3240

Suppport : 3095 / 3060-50 / 3025 / 2990 / 2965 / 2950

SENSEX (10048.49)

Resistance : 10060 / 10135-50 / 10230-45 / 10295

Suppport : 10025-15 / 9930 / 9885 / 9815-05

NIFTY FUT (3124.55) : Strong Support At 3055/60

Resistance : 3135 / 3155 / 3190

Suppport : 3105 / 3075 / 3055 / 3025

BANK NIFTY (4402.7)

Resistance : 4470 / 4535

Suppport : 4360 / 4300 / 4195

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 2.91% with increasing volumes indicating profit booking in long positions plus forming of short positions for STBT.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

On Monday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 3105,Sl Below 3085,Tgt 3130-3145-3165-3195-3225,

Sustain Below 3085,Sell with Sl Above 3105,Tgt 3070-3055-3035-3005.

Positional Lovers :

Buy NIFTY 3200Ce,When NIFTY Is Around 3020/3040,Sl 2980,Tgt 3080++

Stock Watch :

GMRINFRA , PUNJLOYD , CHAMBAL FERTLISER , EKC , JPASSOCIATES , CENTURYTEXTILES

Buy

BHARAT BIJLEE@ 410, ADANI Above 247,

PRAJIND@ 57, KALPATARU@ 325, APTECH@ 82

ADLABS LOOKING HOT AND FIERY

SAIL(102.8) : Buy Around 100/101,Sl 98,Tgt 106/108+

STERLITE (374.2) : Buy Around 350/60,Sl 335,Tgt 395/405+

GRASIM (1602.95) : Buy Around 1560/70,Sl 1505,Tgt 1650/70/90+

SESAGOA(107.8) : Buy Around 105,Sl 99,Tgt 113/15+

Buy SBIN(1124),Sl Below 1110,Tgt 1140-1150-1160

Buy ACC Above 585/90

Buy RENUKA Above 89

Buy HCLTECH Above 105,Tgt 110/15,Sl 100

Buy BPCL Above 365,Tgt 370-380-390,Sl 360

Buy GAIL Above 240,Tgt 245-250-260,Sl 235

Buy ITC Above 185,Tgt 190-195-205,Sl 180

Buy REDINGTON Above 110,Tgt 113-115-119,Sl 108

Sell BHEL Below 1545,Tgt 1530-1505-1450,Sl 1565

Sell CMC Below 295,Tgt 290-280-270,Sl 300

Sell ONGC Below 805,Tgt 785-760-710,Sl 820

FUTURES

HDFC (1589) : Sell@ 1605/25,Sl 1640,Tgt 1560/45

RIL (1548) : Sell 1565/75,Sl 1585,Tgt 1535/20 (Clear Off Shorts @ 1520)

RCOM (183.85) : Buy@ 175/78,Sl 170,Tgt 190/95

COMEX GOLD (APR) : Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next upside objective is 951.4. The next area of resistance is around 941.7 and 951.4, while 1st support hits today at 927.1 and below there at 922

COMEX SILVER (MAY) : Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside objective is 1388.3. The next area of resistance is around 1367.7 and 1388.3, while 1st support hits today at 1333.3 and below there at 1319.4

Buy April GOLD Above 15185,Tgt 15260-15385-15685,Sl 15080

Sell GOLD Below 15080,Tgt 15065-14925-14640,Sl 15185

Buy May SILVER Below 22350,Tgt 22550-22935-23420,Sl 22020

Sell SILVER Below 22015,Tgt 21925-21550-20925,Sl 22345

Buy April CRUDE Above 2680,Tgt 2715-2735-2790,Sl 2660

Sell CRUDE Below 2655,Tgt 2620-2565-2455,Sl 2675

Buy April COPPER Above 207.8,Tgt 209.7-212.6-213.9,Sl 204.3

Sell COPPER Below 204.3,Tgt 202.9-199.1-192.3,Sl 207.8

Markets Weekly For 30/3 To 3/4/2009

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION
Observation:-
1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 1.96%, NIFTY FUT up 11.53% last week. OI up despite expiry last week.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 48 Stock FUTS closed positive, 1 Stock FUTS closed negative and 1 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
3) OI of NIFTY 3000 CE is up 88.67% prices up 357.51%, NIFTY 3100 CE is up 355.90% prices up 548.44% and NIFTY 3200 CE is up 1699.87% prices up 752.04% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 3000 CE is 27.11 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of NIFTY 2800 PE is up 203.36% prices down 68.63%, NIFTY 2900 PE is up 1027.10% prices down 67.49% and NIFTY 3000 PE is up 3552.13% prices down 65.28% last week showing aggressive put writing. OI of NIFTY 3100 PE is up 86432.26% prices down 63.09%, NIFTY 3200 PE is up 2616.03% prices down 58.83%last week showing put buying at lower levels on expectation of profit booking in market. OI of NIFTY 2700 PE is 48.28 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of APR series CALLs is up by 77.91 LK to 1.66 CR. MAR series PUTs is up by 1.53 CR to 3.25 CR last week. MAR series PCR (OI) at 1.95.

Conclusion :-
NIFTY FUT showed biggest weekly gain of 2009 last week. I expect profit booking next week due to sharp rise. NIFTY SPOT support at 3070-80 levels, below 3060 levels, next target will be 3020-30 levels. Below 3010 levels, maximum NIFTY SPOT will move down to 2970-80 levels. NIFTY SPOT strong support here, I expect next up move will begin if NIFTY SPOT hold these levels. On up side, NIFTY SPOT resistance at 3180-90 levels, sustain above 3210-20 levels will show sharp up move again.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY FUTURE
Trend : Volatile
Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 1.96%, NIFTY FUT up 11.53% last week. OI of NIFTY 3000 CE is up 88.67% prices up 357.51%, NIFTY 3100 CE is up 355.90% prices up 548.44%, NIFTY 3200 CE is up 1699.87% prices up 752.04% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 2800 PE is up 203.36% prices down 68.63%, NIFTY 2900 PE is up 1027.10% prices down 67.49% and NIFTY 3000 PE is up 3552.13% prices down 65.28% last week showing aggressive put writing. We expect after sharp rise NIFTY SPOT to
show profit booking next week. NIFTY SPOT Resistance at 3150-60, 3180-90 levels, strong resistance at 3210-20 levels. NIFTY SPOT support at 3070-80, 3020-30 levels, strong support at 2970-80 levels.

SECTOR WATCH

SUGAR

Trend : Bullish
Total OI of BAJAJHIND FUT down 6.56% prices up 11.45%, BALRAMCHIN FUT down 22.43% prices up 15.23%, RENUKA FUT down 46.97% prices up 9.23% and TRIVENI FUT down 1.81% prices up 14.39% last week. OI down due to expiry last week. Most of STOCK FUT showing not only short covering but forming of long positions too. TRIVENI FUT most strong. We expect positive move in SUGAR counters next week.

NIFTY (3108.65)

Resistance : 3130 / 3220 / 3290 / 3330 / 3355

Support : 3080 / 3040 / 3010 / 2955 / 2900 / 2835 / 2695

SENSEX (10048.49)

Resistance : 10230 / 10440 / 10650 / 10785 / 10825

Support : 10015 / 9885 / 9735 / 9570 / 9350 / 9130 / 8650

NIFTY FUT (3124.55)

Resistance : 3230 / 3335

Support : 3035 / 2930 / 2740

BANK NIFTY (4402.7)

Resistance : 4650 / 4885

Support : 4185 / 3945 / 3490

Technical Picks for the Forthcoming Week

Buy APTECH 80/85,Sl 75,Tgt 90/95/100/105

Buy PRAJIND 55/58,Sl 51,Tgt 63/65/69

Markets For 27-03-2009

Daily Market Outlook: 27 March 2009

It was fantastic day for the Indian markets as markets witnessed a strong up move on the expiry day after a long time. Indian markets opened on a positive note on account of better than expected economic data from the US. With strong opening of Asian markets, markets moved only one way – northwards. However, markets shed few points towards the fag end of the session. Fall in inflation to 0.27 per cent also contributed to the rise in index. With this strong performance, Sensex crossed the psychological 10,000 mark and closed at 10,003.10 (up 335.20 points) and Nifty closed at 3,082.25 (up 97.90 points). As per the sectoral performance, except realty, all other indices closed in the green with significant gains. Major fall in Realty index happened due to Akruti City, which fell by 55.10 per cent. Capital goods, metal and power were the major gainers. Market breadth was positive with 1,392 advances and only 1,138 declines.

NIFTY (3082.25)

Support : 3025 / 3040 / 2980 / 2960

Resistance : 3110-20 / 3150 / 3195

SENSEX

Support : 9805 / 9740 / 9610

Resistance : 10130 / 10200 / 10255

NIFTY FUT (3082)

Support : 3035 / 3010 / 2985 / 2935

Resistance : 3115 / 3130 / 3150 / 3175

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 19.07% with 48% increasing volumes indicating forming of long positions. NIFTY FUT OI at 3.61 CR,

we are starting new series with heavy OI build up. We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive.

On Friday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 3080,Sl Below 3060,Tgt 3105-3130-3160-3175,

Sustain Below 3060,Sell with Sl Above 3080,Tgt 3040-3025-3005-2970

Buy CENTURYTEXT Above 205/07

Buy GAIL Above 240,Tgt 245/50,Sl 235

Buy ICICIBANK Above 375

Buy TITAN Above 775

Sbin (1096) Buy with Sl Below 1080,Tgt 1115-1130

Buy BOB Above 235,Tgt 245-250-265,Sl 230

Buy BHEL Above 1565,Tgt 1610-1660-1775,Sl 1545

Buy ITC Above 185,Tgt 190-195-205,Sl 180

Sell BAJAJAUTO Below 615,Tgt 605-595-565,Sl 630

Sell BIOCON Below 135,Tgt 130-125-115,Sl 140

Sell VSNL Below 530,Tgt 525-515-500,Sl 540

FUTURES

LNT (661.35) : Buy 650/55,Sl 340,Tgt 675/85+

TATAMOTORS (172.7) : Buy@ 165/70,Sl 160,Tgt 175/80/85+

Buy ZEEL@ 105/06,Sl 103,Tgt 106.7/107.2/108.3/109.3/110.4/111.5/112.6/113.3 (Lot Size : 2800)

Sell ESCORTS@ 35/36,Sl 37,Tgt 35.5/35.1/34.7/34/33.6/33.3 (Lot Size : 9600)

COMEX GOLD (APR): The market now above the 40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication the intermediate-term trend has turned positive. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside target is 957.4. The next area of resistance is around 946.9 and 957.4, while 1st support hits today at 920.9 and below there at 905.5.

COMEX SILVER (MAY): Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside objective is at 1403.7. The next area of resistance is around 1380.0 and 1403.7, while 1st support hits today at 1314.0 and below there at 1271.8.

Technical Levels for 27 March 2009
Symbol	RES 1	RES 2	RES 3	Pivot	Supp1	Supp 2	Supp 3	Signal
GOLD	15355.00	15445.00	15539.00	15261.00	15171.00	15077.00	14987.00	Buy Signal
SILVER	22738.33	22907.67	23150.33	22495.67	22326.33	22083.67	21914.33	Buy Signal
LEAD	67.17	67.98	69.17	65.98	65.17	63.98	63.17	Buy Signal
COPPER	209.28	211.92	215.33	205.87	203.23	199.82	197.18	Buy Signal
NICKEL	499.10	505.50	512.60	492.00	485.60	478.50	472.10	Buy Signal
CRUDEOIL	2745.33	2786.67	2815.33	2716.67	2675.33	2646.67	2605.33	Sell Signal
ZINC	67.60	68.75	70.55	65.80	64.65	62.85	61.70	Buy Signal
NATURALGAS	219.50	233.40	240.60	212.30	198.40	191.20	177.30	Sell Signal
MENTHAOIL	559.10	573.20	582.50	549.80	535.70	526.40	512.30	Sell Signal
ALUMINIUM	71.85	72.65	73.75	70.75	69.95	68.85	68.05	Buy Signal
REFSOYOIL	454.77	456.53	459.42	451.88	450.12	447.23	445.47	Buy Signal