Markets Weekly For 29-12-2008 To 02-01-2009

Markets give up gains post Christmas.
US is closed for next few days. Asian markets may cherish this week.
I see markets may remain in upward trend this week..
If people say 6000 is the bottom (Sensex) we should have atleast corrected till 7850 on Sensex till now

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-
--> NIFTY FUT Total OI down 29.35%, NIFTY FUT down 6.97%, last week. OI down mainly due to expiry.
--> Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 47 Stock FUTS closed negative,1 Stock FUTS closed positive and 2 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
--> OI of NIFTY 3000 CE is up 126.95% prices down 59.18%, 3100 CE is up 200.46% prices down 65.30% last week
showing call writing.
--> OI of NIFTY 2800 PE OI is up 198.54% prices up 80.57%, 2700 PE is up 277.43% prices up 87.84% last week showing put buying.
NIFTY 3000 PE OI is up 101.65% prices up 76.51% showing buyers still not booked profit.

WEEKLY VIEW ON NIFTY FUTURE
Trend : Bearish
NIFTY FUT total OI down 29.35%, NIFTY FUT down 6.97%, last week.
OI of NIFTY 3000 CE is up 126.95%, 3100 CE is up 200.46% with falling prices, showing call writing.
OI of NIFTY 2800 PE is up 198.54%, 2700 PE is up 277.43%, with rising prices showing put buying.
NIFTY FUT OI down due to expiry. I expect NIFTY SPOT Support at 2770-80, 2720-30 levels.
Bounce expect from these levels.

SECTOR WATCH

MIDCAP IT STOCKS
Trend : Bearish
OI of 3IINFOTECH FUT down 1.45%, COREPROTEC FUT down 5.07%, NIITLTD FUT down 22.81%, OFSS FUT down 13.19%,

TECHM FUT down 24.69% OI down due to expiry but 3iINFOTECH FUT,COREPROTEC FUT and OFSS FUT showing shorts build up. OI of FSL FUT up 17.94%, ICSA FUT up 23.66% also showing shorts build up. We expect negative move in coming week.

SUGAR
Trend : Bullish
OI of BAJAJHIND FUT up 6.34%, BALRAMCHIN FUT down 11.98%, RENUKA FUT down 4.38% and
TRIVENI FUT down 9.78% last week. BAJAJHIND FUT, RENUKA FUT, TRIVENI FUT showing long
positions build up. Only BALRAMCHIN FUT showing short covering. We expect positive move in coming week.

Weekly Trend (29-12-2008 to 2-01-2009) Volatile and Mix

2565-80 / 2675-95 / 2745 / 2780 /2840 [NIFTY SPOT] 2910 / 2945 / 2990-3010 / 3050 / 3115 / 3160

8455 / 8750-90 / 8960 [SENSEX] 9520 / 9630 / 9840 / 10175 .

Weekly Market (29-12-08 to 2-1-2009)

Market may recover after sharp fall in this week Nifty lost 220 points (-7.1%) & Sensex lost 770 points (-7.63%) in the last week. Nifty closed below the 2,900 mark while the Sensex drifted below the 9,500 level. Hopes of further rate cuts by the RBI, Rate reduce in fuel prices and a likely second government stimulus package to pump prime the economy may trigger a recovery on the bourses after a sharp slide last week.
In last week, Inflation slipped to a nine-month low, 6.61% against 6.84% (WoW). The government said advance taxes paid by companies declined 22% reflecting economic slowdown. Also there is now tension of war at Indo-Pak border, but as of now both nation’s government said that, there would be no Indo-Pak war.
However, trading volumes are likely to remain low as most foreign fund managers are on a vacation for Christmas and the New Year. Use Stop loss strictly in your every trade, because market is heavily volatile with narrow trading range.
Last week nifty could not sustain above 3000. Now below 2840,Nifty may touch 2780-2695 and if Nifty Close Above 2910 at least for two days then it may touch 2990,3050 to 3110 in coming days.

NIFTY HAS STRONG SUPP BAND NEAR 2810-2750.CAN SEE SOME BOUNCE THIS WEEK.

NIFTY HAVEN'T YET BROKEN THE LOWER TRENDLINE,CAN TAKE SUPP NEAR THAT AND MAY BOUNCE ON NEWS TO HIGHER LVLS..3025-3050 BAND WILL GIVE STIFF RESISTANCE

IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE TO NIFTY WILL BE 2910-2985 BAND.AND IMM SUPP WILL BE 2810-2750..BEL 2750 NIFTY CAN FALL AT SWIFTER PACE& BEL 2633.BEARS WILL RULE MKT.

ALL EYES ON FISCAL STIMULUS PACKAGE AND INDO PAK TENSION

EQUITY MKT OUTLOOK'09:WE R EXPECTIN MKT 2 BE IN RANGE OF 7300-13500.MAJOR EVENT:ELECTION,GDP NO(7.5%)INFLATION(DWN)INT.RATE CUT 6%.EARNINGS

CURRENCY MKT OUTLOOK'09 : INR/USD in The Range Of 43.50-51.5

COMMODITIES MKT OUTLOOK'09 : GOLD RANGE $720-$1100,CRUDE RANGE $32-$62.COPPER RANGE MCX125-190.SILVER MCX RANGE 15500-22000

Simple Moving Averages –

5 D	8 D	13 D	20 D	39 D	50 D	200 D
2972	2990	2958	2873	2852	2908	4111

At present we lie between 39 days SMA. Only if we cross 50 day SMA we heades towards 3050.

Fibonacci price projections-

	0%	61.8%	100%	161.8%	261.8%
Up	2503	2707	2833	3037	3367
Dn	2833	2629	2503	2299	1969

Some Stocks Views:-

CAIRN (159): Buy Above 163 for Target of 174-180-190 with Stop loss of 152.
GTOFFSHORE (212):Buy Above 215 with Stop loss of 206. Target is 228-233-239.
Bank of Baroda (263):Buy Only Above 266 for Target of 280-287-294 with Stop loss of 253.

PFC (123): Sell this stock if close below 119 with stop loss of 124. Target is 116-111-106.

EDUCOMP BUY BETWEEN 2240-2355 FOR TGT 2525-2650-2800-3000+ KEEP STOPLOSS BELOW 2210......

RELIANCE POSSIBLE UPSIDE 30% FROM 1170-1180 LEVELS.

GVKPIL CAN TOUCH 30 BEFORE JAN EXPIRY

FIRST SOURCE SOLUTIONS IS HOT ABV 13.5 FOR 30-50% UPSIDE

DLF CAN TOUCH 400 VERY SOON ACCUMULATE IN ALL DIPS.

NIFTY : NIFTY KEEP SL 2745 & BUY JAN FUT IN ALL DECLINES FOR TGT 2950-3012-3050-3114-3200 IN JANUARY.HEDGE WITH 2600 PUT JAN & PLAY.........

Buy 2800Call Around 165,Tgt 210-240