Markets For 13-10-2008

13-10-2008

Weekly Nifty Support: 3220/2945
Weekly Nifty Resistance: 3550/3785/4000

RESULT 2MORO:Axis Bank,Orbit Corp,Tata Investment,DCM Fin.Service,Repro India.

We witnessed a worst week in Indian Market History. All positive factors were getting absorbed without leaving impact on mkt. After much drama, bailout package was passed by US, but all in vain to stop market falling. Whole world market witnessed a drainage of money.
SEBI, to improve the condition, removed ban over FII's investments through P-Notes. RBI surprised all by deducting CRR by 150 bps to inject liquidity.
We have witnessed biggest selling by FII's in recent time.
FII's bought worth $17 bn (approx) last year & this year they have sold worth $10 bn (approx) till date..... uuffff
We have many stocks available at throw away - Mouth watering prices, namely: JPASSOC, LT,RIL,RELINFRA,RIL..... list goes on. But I dont dare to buy stocks still in this market. Till panic is not over, I am least interested in taking in big positions & will be limited with Intraday trading & I hope same for you all.

What we are lacking: Participation from retail sector as fear is clearly visible. Volumes have dried up.
Technically market in badly oversold zone. On higher side 3900 level will offer stiff resistance this time to cross. A bounce of 10-20% is normal in such Bear market & we may witness same in coming days.
Still my view is to be highly cautious.

When crude was trading @ $147, we were only to gave Crude Tgt of $110-$90-$75 & (So-called) T.V analysts were giving tgt of $170-$200. Crude almost made a low of $75 now. We only broadly claimed, you all are witness.

Friends we have two positive news that’s is inflation is going down and beat of softening and crude oil is constantly going down n down so both this matter is vary good for the Indian economy as well as Indian stock market sentiment .on Friday government announced the quarterly iip data and it plung to 1.3% from 10%-two thing I would like to tell u to notice that our gdp is not going dramatically and in this quarter our companies paid advance take at healthy rate compare to the last year quarter and last quarter –is that our companies has gone to bankruptcy? Is our economy entered in to slowdown? Then? Just think on the issue. Indian market correction due to liquidity crunch

Usa finally approves the $ 700 billion bail out plan then uk has also make bailout arrangements and most of developed and emerging country has cut the interest rates. Where all this big liquidity will go? In to gold? Not much as gold is running near high and against that emerging market equity is trading at vary cheap level. Our insider sources suggest that we (emerging) market will get at least $ 100 billion from this liquidity flow. In this inflow India and china will get more. Again we have the strong points to get more foreign inflow in to India is that sebi removed p-not rules –now they can invest any where in to India so this step is good for Indian stock market sentiment and liquidity .we are seeing other option of big liquidity is “petro dollar” they usually invest in to usa and now usa is going in to recession and we brazil,Russia,china,India are emerging market they need to generate the higher returns and Indian and china economy has vary much potential to grow and to become what the usa is though it will take time to reach that levels but we are much potential and promising economy so the larger inflow will be seen from gulf money for long term .

In our last meeting with fii dealers and analyst they point out one big thing that Swiss bank money is ready to tap the Indian stock market and they also told that this money will kill the fii selling in India and vary soon Indian stock market will find the bottom and will pull back significantly.

Friends the meanings of saying all this is only that don’t sell ur holding at this cheap levels and start investing In to India.

Friends one more point to tell u all is that when sensex was at 20000 most technical analyst suggest that it will soon hit the 25000 and it don’t t and when market was coming down sharply they told that this is buying opp and suddenly market just crashed and no one could sell their holding and now market is near to bottom they suggest that don’t buy it will plunge to this and that vary much low levels and also suggesting that in every rally exit but no we as technical analyst suggest to all to book profit between 18000 to 21000 and now our target for sensex is 19013 and telling to buy the good companies stock trading between p/e multiple of 1 to 5 like tisco,hindalco,sterlite and many more so buy all good companies stock .

If u are not able to choose the good companies stock or not having big money to invest right now then we suggest to invest in mutual fund –we suggest two mutual fund trading at discount are as below

Reliance natural resources fund

J p morgan smaller companies fund

We advise to invest at least two years in to this two fund through sip and u will get good returns.

Other thing we notice is that all big and small players are selling their holding from icici bank and withdrawing the money –friends all Indian bank are governed by the reserve bank and all bank are well capitalized so don’t worry to invest in icici bank shares we would like to make to example on that issue –

Our guru Johan Templeton says that u can make money when there is lot pessimism in market. when in India there was accident in Bhopal in united gas company- its shares heavily down and all were selling the stock and in worst pessimism he bought the stock and earn $ 10 million in short span .

Other example of our investment guru warren e buffet he invest in goldman sach and in few hours stock gains much and he made 3500 cr .

What u understands from both examples? Invest when others are fearful and invest when there is pessimism so this is the right time to enter in to icici bank share and Indian market too.

DERAVATIVE ANALYSIS-

Deravtive analyis suggest that big players are buying call of 3400-3500-3600 so they are become positive on Indian stock market and we may see some sort of pull back in Indian stock market.

NIFTY FUTURE-

Index is trading in highly over sold zone on rsi and ,macd charts and rsi chart is giving buy signal. Market is waiting for some positive development or news around the globe if global market pull back then we will see the fast recovery as we are also trading below bolinger band from last three days so the recover will be vary fast and it will be killing for short seller .

On the quarterly charts index has strong support at 3205 below that level it has two major supports at 2985 and 2860.

While on the upper side it has resistance at 3530-3770 if it gives two close above 3770 then it will gain.

Stocks To Watch (Positional)

Buy : Nifty-4000-DEC-CA call option
CMP : Rs 85-95
Your Max Risk = Rs 4250-4750
Profit : Unlimited
Stop Loss : 2985

RELIANCE : 1500 is the Strong Support on Closing basis.

A Leading Research firms said
September quarter revenue is expected to
Go up 27.3% at Rs 407,974 million (Rs 40797.4 crore)

PAT is seen up 2.8% at Rs 39453 million (Rs 3945.3 crore)

Infosys

Results Snaps :-
Infosys Reported a rise in the Net Profit of 30.2 %
Q2FY09 Revenues (QoQ) Stood UP 11.6% at Rs 5418 crore Vs Rs 4854 crore.
Q2FY09 Net Profit stood at Rs 1432 crore Vs Rs 1302 crore (QoQ), up 10%.
Operating Margin improved by 3%.
EPS guidance of 13% is in line with projected growth.
FY09 EPS seen at $ 2.24/ADR, revised down from $ 2.32/ADR.
Infosys has added 40 new clients in Q2.
Guidance for FY09 revenues is at 13-15%, scaled down from 19-21%.
Target 1525 in Short Term
Keep Strict Stop Loss @ 1040

Good Stocks to Buy in PANIC ( Positional )
MoserBear,Rnrl,RCap,Aban,GrtOffShore,Jindal Saw,Ntpc,PowerGrid
Itc,Cipla,Bhel,BoI,Sbi,Hcc,Jp Associate,Rpl,Sail,Suzlon,Mtnl,Hindalco,Ranbaxy

Monday if Nifty Future trade above the level of 3275 then it can go up to the level of 3415, 3515 to 3720 but if Nifty Future go to break the level of 3270 then it can go below the level of 3210, 3105 to 2900.

Next Week Bottom Should B Made,Bounce Is Expected.
SENSEX
Key Supports:10390 / 10240 / 9960 / 9540
NIFTY
Supports:3195 / 3115 / 2985 / 2860

INTRADAY

Buy BOB Above @ 280,Target 295-310-345.

Buy BHARTI Above @ 695,Target 725-750-815.

Buy BIOCON Above @ 135,Target 140-145-155.

Buy Dr.REDDY Above @ 445,Target 465-495-550.

Buy HDFC BANK Above @ 1070,Target 1110-1165-1290.

Buy M&M Above @ 470,Target 515-565-675.

Buy RPL Above @ 115,Target 120-130-140.

Buy SATYAM Above @ 250,Target 270-290-340.

Buy STER Above @ 280,Target 294-310-350.

Buy WIPRO Above @ 270,Target 280-300-335.

Sell NF Below @ 3270,Target 3240-3210-3105-2900,Sl 3295.

Sell SIEMENS Below @ 295,Target 275-250-195.

Sell RELIANCE Below @ 1505 ,Target 1470-1405-1280.

Sell ONGC Below @ 910,Target 885-850-775.

Sell ICICIBANK Below @ 350,Target 315-270-165.

Rumours :

ALERT : SWISS BANK MONEY WILL SOON COME TO INDIA AND IT WILL FIGHT AGAINST THE FII AND THEY WILL KILL THE FII SELLING.

Russian government will buy Stks,Nxt Week 2 support shares price,which have fallen 60% Frm May.

Icici life insurance partner PRUDENTIAL is withdrawing joint venture support