Markets For 28-10-2008

RESULTS - DT.29/10/08:

DIVIS LABS,EICHER MOTOR,JINDAL STAINLES,MATRIX LABS,RASHTRIYA CHANAL,M&M,CAIRN IND,BRITANIA IND,3M INDIA LTD.

Price to book value nos could help you in crisis

What is a good yardstick for an undervalued stocks in times of crisis such as the current one? The answer to that, many market watchers say, is price to book value(P/BV). Book value is the measure that each shareholder stands to get, were the company to be liquidated.

Conventional wisdom suggests that there is very little chance of going wrong if an investor were to put his money in a stock with a P/BV of less than one. Already 21 stocks in the BSE-100 index have seen their price to book value fall below one, as a result of the unprecedented erosion in their stock prices.

Stocks that fall into this category include PSU oil marketing companies like HPCL and IOC, and metal stocks like Tata Steel, Hindalco and JSW Steel.

In the case of oil marketing companies, the recent softening of crude oil prices has not helped much. For one, they are still holding inventory purchased at very high prices. Also, these companies also have refining divisions, which are the major contributors to their profitability. Gross refining margins have fallen sharply in line with the slide in regional refining margins, and is likely to weigh on earnings.

In the case of metal stocks, investors are concerned that a global economic slowdown over the next few quarters could adversely hit demand for commodities in general.

Similarly, investor concerns for the growth prospects of the real estate, cement and construction sector over the medium term has resulted in scrips like Grasim Industries and IVRCL Infrastructure & Projects quoting at a price to book value of less than one. At Monday’s close of 4343.2, the broader BSE-100 index trades at a P/BV of 2.06 times.

Says Ramdeo Aggrawal, managing director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, “Investors would need to look at the fundamentals of each sector over the medium term where stocks are trading at a price to book value of less than one, and decide if there are growth possibilities at the current stock prices.”

Adds Anuj Choksey, co-head, institutional equities, KR Choksey Shares and Securities, “Valuations of metals shares and those connected to the construction sector are trading at ridiculously low levels as investors are assigning pessimistic valuations at the first signs of a slowdown.”

Meanwhile, the Sensex went below 8,000 intra-day on Monday, as there was no let-up in the selling fury that has gripped Dalal Street over the last couple of weeks. This has been a hallmark of emerging markets in general. So how does India compare with them? At Monday's close, the Sensex is trading about 9.5 times trailing 12-month earnings.

In contrast, other indices like the Shanghai Composite Index ended at 1,723 on Monday trade at a P/E of 13.35 times, while the Brazilian Bovespa at Friday's close of 31,481 is trading about 7.5 times. Of course, the Russian stock market index, the Russian RTS Index which has lost nearly 70% since its peak over the last few weeks, trades at an abysmal P/E of 3 times.

source:-www.economictimes.com

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) up with increasing volumes indicating short covering in current series, and forming of long positions in next series.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive with high volatility.

State Bank, Infosys, Oracle Financial Software, Biocon are good buys on decline for long-term investment.

Even in the current sentiment, Info Edge India & Educomp are trading at very high valuations. Sooner than later both will witness aggressive selling from the FIIs.Promoters of Man Industries are constantly buying shares from the open market. The scrip seems to have bottomed out and may shoot up sharply in the near future. Keep a close watch.
Diamond Power seems to be much confident and least bothered about the anticipated slowdown in power. It is moving ahead full throttle with its expansion plans. Accumulate at sharp declines.

US markets were volatile yesterday.
Europe is trading mixed DAX is having a good time around.
Asia had a good day. Heng Seng is up more than 12%.

MARKET VIEW ON 28TH OCT. 2008

MKT SHUD OPEN GAP UP ON BACK OF HUGE UPSURGE IN ASIAN BOURSES.

MKTS ARE LOWER LEVELS PLS DONT AWAY FROM MKTS.TODAY MKT LIKELY OPEN OVER 3% TO 4% UP

NIFTY

Supports : 2485/2425/2325/2375/2310/2290/2120/2095

Resistance : 2560/2610/2660/2735/2785/2815

SENSEX

SUPPORT : 8700-8345-8045-7890-7275

RESISTENCE : 9360-8980-8935-8825-8675-9200

For today trading in nse nifty October future trend level exists at 2490-2550 levels.

On Tuesday & Wednesday if Nifty Future trade above the level of 2515 then it can go up to the level of 2590/2660/2715/2790/3145( Sl : Below 2500) but if Nifty Future go to break the level of 2485 & after this 2440//2410/2380/2305 then it can go below the level of 2280/2085/1735( Sl : Above 2500 ) . Monday’s lower level of Sensex 7697.39 & Nifty 2252.75 will be the very crucial, after break these levels more fall will be in the market.

Stock to watch for are :

LNT,Unitech,IndiaBulls Realestates,Godrej,HDFC Bank,SBI Bank,Ambuja Cement,Reliance,Satyam,Bhel,GOLDBEES & NIFTYBEES

Intraday

Buy ACC Above @ 415 target 445/470/485.

Buy BAJAJAUTO Above @ 470 Target 490/510/515.

Buy BHARTI Above @ 565 Target 610/655/680.

Buy BHEL Above @ 1090 Target 1145/1210/1235.

Buy CIPLA Above @ 165 Target 175/180/185.

Buy GAIL Above @ 195 target 210/224/235.

Buy GRASIM Above @ 965 Target 1034/1115/1150.

Buy HEROHONDA Above @ 710 Target 730/765/775.

Buy HLL Above @ 215 target 230/250/255.

Buy INFOSYS Above @ 1260 target 1310/1370/1395.

Buy RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS 203 - 204,Target: 210/215,Sl:190

Buy SUZLON ENERGY 47-48, Target: 50/ 55,Sl: 43

Buy IFCI 17- 17.3,Target:18/19,Sl:15.85

Sell JETAIRWAYS Below @ 140 target 130/110/105.

Sell PATNI Below @135 Target 130/125/120.

Sell SBI Below @ 1035 target 965/870/830.

Sell TATAPOWER Below @ 550 target 525/475/380.

Sell CORPBANK Below @ 185 Target 175/155/150.

Sell ICICIBANK below:310, tgt:306,300 sl:315.

Sell MRPL below:32, tgt:30,29 sl:32.50.

Scrip	Trigger	Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
RELINFRA	BUY ABOVE	400.45	396.85	404.45	409.90
	SELL BELOW	392.50	396.05	388.60	383.35
STERLINBIO	BUY ABOVE	158.65	157.20	160.25	162.40
	SELL BELOW	155.50	156.90	153.95	151.85

NIFTY NOV CALL 3200 BUY @ 50-55 TAR - 104 SL-- 23
( 13-14 TRADING SESSIONS)

Markets For 27-10-2008 (Weekly)

Wish U all a Very Happy Deepavali, May Goddess Laxmi smiles and showers us with wealth in coming year.

- The pain which we are witnessing would be remembered by generations. It would not be easy to forget the fall all our lives. I, in my Eight+ years of experience in Equity Markets have seen many falls and rises be it Dot Com bust or Ketan Parikh, what not? But this is the biggest blow ever witnessed. The only positive one can imagine out of the fall is that it has polished people to such a extent that they can be better people in the market.

- Most of the selling came on Friday after the announcement by RBI that there are no policy decisions taken nor is there any change on the interest rates front. RBI should have cut lending rates atleast by 0.25% to boost the confidence in the market, but it ended up saying inflation remains a concern. Inflation is not the main concern now its the confidence which requires to be brought back into the system. This is one side of the story the other side is most of the selling came again by the FII’s hence even if market would have increased on a rate cut it is FII’s who would have got better rates for offloading their shares. Hence the rates are lower now and hence we would get better rates if interest rates come down now.

- FII’s pumped in around $15 Bn in 2007 and this year till date have sold around $12 Bn hence assuming they sell all there purchases of last year, the levels which prop up looks horrifying. Technicals show clear target for Dow at 7550 – 7260 and for Nifty at 2030 – 1840 which means we should land and take support at 7000 on Sensex and We sincerely feels that that should be the targets in worst case scenario.

- Many people call and send emails daily and the grief in investors voices is clearly visible though not told out by them. Investors felt there’s no end to the bull market in Jan and today they feel there’s no end to the bear markets. Markets turn when people loose hope and its time people start committing money for atleast 3 years time horizon.

Weekly Review for the Week October 27th - 31st October 2008 - Technical View.

Sensex: (8701)

Nifty: (2584)

24.10.08

We said ‘Technically the market still looks weak and there is no sign of strength so far the next level to watch beyond 9705 is 9325 and 8508 and 2908 on the Nifty front. If the market is UP on Monday then a sharp short covering reaction is not ruled out and that is a BIG if ‘

The market unfolded beautifully as expected. The market came down to 9700, stopped and then cracked 9700 to go to 9325 and then proceed downwards 8508.

Technically the market still looks weak and there is no sign of strength so far but 8508 on the Sensex and 2517 on the Nifty is a strong support to deal with, the crack of which could see the Sensex slide down the next level of 8048 or 2411 on the Nifty. We are now heading into an F&O expiry week and so sharp reactions are not ruled out.

The supports on the way down are at 8508-8408-7613 and resistances on the way up are at 1911

The supports on the way down are at 2517-2411 and resistances on the way up are at 3047

From a trading point of view I would be short but cautious, as sharp reactions are not ruled out

Happy Trading,

Source: - Prakash Gaba.

Weekly Trend (27-10-2008 to 31-10-2008) Volatile and Mix

2245/2360/2410/2520 [NIFTY SPOT] 2805/2975/3045/3190/3255.

7610/7735/8065/8405/8485/8565 [SENSEX] 9150/9350/9405/9915/10750.

EXPIRY N SHORT COVERING WEEK AHEAD.

Market View –27.10.2008

Opening is flat to down,

On the Monday

If Nifty Future go to cross the level of 2635 then it can go up to the level of 2695/2795/2840/3025( Sl : Below 2620),

But if Nifty Future do not cross the level of 2620 or after cross this level once gain go to break this level then it can go below the level of 2425/2265/2195( Sl : Above 2640) but its possibility is very less.

NIFTY INTRADAY ( 27/10/2008)

Resistance : 2620/2840/3000/3060/3095
Supports : 2265/2425/2480


SENSEX

Resistance : 9330/9950
Supports : 7940/8320

Technically We may see a Sharp Reversal very soon if 2265 held by Nifty. Taking Nifty Nov 3200 CEs is a gud idea now.1 may start investing.

But Now Market Currently Trading @ 2550. if Nifty Close Below 2265 Then Market Might Touch 2100/1900.But Now Market is in Oversold ZONE.

EXPIRY SPECIAL:
BUY RELIANCE ABV@1000,TGT@1100/1200,SL{STRICT}@975;
BUY EDUCOMP ABV@1825,TGT@1945/2000,SL@1775

BUY UNITECH 25-30,TGT BFOR EXPIRY@42,Strict Sl 25

Short Term Buying

ABAN;;760.........support at 702...if come to 720 or 725...buy for long....tgt 950..

BHEL;1091.........support at 1075..buy with .sl ...tgt 1300..

BANKBARODA...245....support at 233...buy with sl....tgt 265..or more..

AXIS BANK...534.....near to support....530..buy with sl....tgt 650..or more

Intraday

Buy BAJAJAUTO Above @ 470 target 480-510-555.

Buy BHEL Above @ 1100 Target 1120-1170-1235.

Buy BOMDYEING Above @ 165 target 170-185-210.

Buy GAIL Above @ 195 Target 205-220-245.

Buy HEROHONDA Above @ 730 Target 740-760-790.

Buy ICICIBANK Above @ 320 Target 330-355-400.

Buy KOTAKBANK Above @ 300 target 315-360-430.

Buy POLARIS Above @ 40 target 45-50-60.

Buy TATASTEEL Above @ 180 target 185-200-215.

Buy VSNL Above @ 370 Target 380-415-465.

Sell SCI Below @ 115 target 110-105-95.

Sell NTPC Below @ 130 Target 125-115-100.

Sell L&T Below @ 770 target 740-705-630.

Sell GRASIM Below @ 1025 Target 955-870-680.

Sell BOB Below @ 240 Target 225-205-163.

Tata Powers (Last closed = 629 ) Sell with stop loss abv 649 tgt-606-590.

Markets For 24-10-2008

Nifty Spot Support and Resistance for 24 October 2008 (Close :2943.15)

Support : 2895/2875/2855/2815/2790

Resistance:2975/3010/3045/3080/3135/3150

Sensex

Support : 9680/9555/9455/9345/9290/9125

Resistance : 9930/10125/10175/10295/10475

On Friday (24-10-2008)

If Nifty Future crosses the level of 2970 then it can go up to the level of 3040/3065/3145/3175(Sl:Below 2950)

But if Nifty Future trades below the level of 2960 or after cross level go to break this level then it can go below the level of 2885/2860/2810/2795/2580(Sl:Above 2985).

TODAY IF SENSEX MAINTAINS ABOVE 9680 LEVELS THEN IT CAN MOVE TOWARDS UPSIDE TARGETS 10295 – 10445 LEVELS… OTHERWISE IT MAY SLIDE UPTO 9290 – 9125 LEVELS...

RESULTS:- DT.24/10/08 BHEL,ABB LTD,ALSTOM PROJECT,AMBUJA CEMENT,ASIAN PAINTS,BALAJI TELE,BANK MAHARASHTRA,DISH TV,GLAXOSMITH,GOKUL REFOIL.

Intraday

Tata Powers (Last closed = 725 ) Sell with stop loss abv 742 tgt-709-700.

BHEL

BUY ABOVE 1184,Sl:1173,Tgt:1196/1212

SELL BELOW 1160,Sl:1171,Tgt:1149/1133

BANKBARODA

BUY ABOVE 275,Sl:273,Tgt:278/282

SELL BELOW 270,Sl:272,Tgt:267/264

Selling Expected In Reliance Capital If Breaks 616

Sell Punj If Breaks 158,Tgt:152/148,Sl:162;

Buy Lnt @ 809-810,Sl below 795

Markets For 23-10-2008

23-10-2008-Thursday

NIFTY FUT OI down 12.33% with 3% decreasing volumes indicating short covering and Rollover of short positions to next series.

We expect downtrend to continue

Opening is flat to down,
On the Thursday (23-10-2008)
If Nifty Future crosses the level of 3095 then it can go up to the level of 3135/3155/3185/3230/3250/3330 [Sl:Below 3085],
but if Nifty Future trades below the level of 3085 then it can go to the level of 3045/3000/2945/2900/2820/2780/2740 [ Sl:Above 3095 ].

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELS ( 23/10/2008)

SUPPORTS : 3015/3000/2945/2925
RESISTANCE :3115/3180/3230/3290

SENSEX

SUPPORT: 10130/10080/10035/9980/9900
RESISTANCE : 10260/10385/10580/10625

BANK NIFTY(C-5102.75)

SUPPORT : 5075-Weak/4990/4880
RESISTANCE : 5185/5300/5500



Intraday:

Tata Powers (Last closed = 752 ) Sell with stop loss abv 768 tgt-743-737.

Rel Cap

Buy Abv 665,Sl:659,Tgt:672/681

Sell Blw 652,Sl:658,Tgt:645/637

ITC

Buy Abv 172.5,Sl:171,Tgt:174/176

Sell Blw 169.5,Sl:170.8,Tgt:167/165

IndiaBulls Buy Abv 112-112.5,Sl:109,Tgt:117/119

Positional :Sell ABB Fut Below 605-610